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Jackson Janes: In order to maintain its relevancy, NATO must convince the world that is as important now as it was 60 years ago. To to this, NATO should re-affirm its commitment to collective defense within a twenty-first century security context, properly resource deployments, and more equally share burdens.
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Ed Burke: Spain cannot avoid the incoming fight in its Area of Responsibility in Afghanistan and should resource the mission properly. The Spanish responsibility to link the southern and western parts of Afghanistan to the north remains essential in the fight against the insurgency.
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Osama Bin Javaid: The current Western involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan is only embedding deeper extremism. Let real democracy develop, as opposed to Karzai’s version, allow the Taliban to run and win elections. Empowering and educating the Afghan masses are the only ways out of NATO’s disarray.
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Memo 22: Atlantic-community.org has developed several policy recommendations regarding the international mission in Afghanistan. Members agree that improving the functioning of the state is necessary and that better governance, empowering local institutions must be one of ISAF’s primary goals.
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Editorial Team: In preparation for the upcoming Atlantic Memo, the editorial staff would like to invite atlantic-community.org members to participate in an analysis of the mission in Afghanistan. Please contribute by answering the highlighted questions and giving concrete recommendations and/or policy suggestions. We welcome your input!
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Bernhard Lucke: With no political solution for Afghanistan in reach, NATO is heading towards disaster. The frequent speeches of exhortation rarely consider the risks of the military escalation and the failure of the political process. It is time to re-evaluate the war.
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Donatella Scatamacchia: Of the 7,000 NATO soldiers that will support the US surge in Afghanistan, the highest contingent will be sent by the Italian Government. With this decision Rome confirms its own support for the transatlantic alliance, and underscores Italy’s important role in international security.
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Jerome Grossman: Obama’s new strategy underscored the United States’ primary objectives, but failed to shed light on some rather dubious dealings between the US, the CIA, and key players in Afghanistan and China. If transparency is the name of the game, answers must be given on key issues of America’s international relationships.
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Memo 21: Amid growing fears of Turkey moving away from the West, atlantic-community.org presents the findings from its special analysis week on Turkey. Members agree that Turkey’s foreign policy should not be misinterpreted as a shift East and call upon the US and the EU to start embracing Turkey’s growing influence.
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Brian Katulis: Turkey and the US need to coordinate their efforts in South Asia, Iraq, Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict, towards common goals. In order to make progress on his ambitious policy agenda for the Middle East, Obama needs Turkey. To this end, improving US- Turkish bilateral ties is a first crucial step.
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Gamze Avci: Turkey’s fatigue with the EU has accommodated the diversification of its foreign policy. The perceived uncertainty about the accession process has slowed down reforms and has reduced EU leverage over Ankara. But, at present the mainstay of Turkish foreign policy remains EU membership.
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Stefanie Jennifer Tetenburg: In the post 9/11 era hard power has been priortised over soft power to deal with the ‘new’ terrorist threat. In this dissertation I therefore investigate whether traditional diplomacy is still relevant. I argue that traditional diplomatic tools remain important, but need to be complemented by new diplomatic tools.
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M Brzezinski and M Fung: The success of President Obama’s inaugural visit to China depends on his approach. “Constructive engagement” between Washington and Beijing can break the mold of Sino-US relations if a series of “deliverables” can be agreed upon regarding Pakistan, Afghanistan, and informal military cooperation.
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Harlan Ullman: As Hillary Clinton visits Pakistan the state is quickly becoming the most important strategic issue confronting the US in the fight against jihadi-backed violence. The Obama Administration should recognize this and take effective action to deal with Pakistan’s problems by providing more economic and military aid to Islamabad.
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Abbas Daiyar: Comparisons between the Afghanistan conflict and the Vietnam war are completely unfounded as they have little in common. Obama has no choice but to agree to General McChrystal’s request of sending more troops into Afghanistan.
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Birgit Hütten: Japan, like no other country, has been successful in implementing enormous changes to its political and social structure. The way to modernization and its impact on Afghanistan are vital factors for the development of other Asian countries.
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Sari Kouvo: An increased focus on the technical aspects of rule of law reform will not break the negative spiral of the Afghan public’s declining trust in the state and increased insecurity without a political will to tackle institutionalized impunity.
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Nadia Claudine Boegli: The US and the wider global community must change their strategy towards Afghanistan. Their aim should be to establish a stable Afghan state not mired by corruption and based on the full engagement of the domestic population.
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Marco Vicenzino: The deployment of international troops in Afghanistan must be transitional. Thus, the further strengthening of the Afghan National Army (ANA) has to be a crucial task for NATO. Amongst others, important issues are to increase the army’s manpower, to better train the security forces, and to modernize ANA’s weaponry.
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NATO: As the insurgency persists the message from NATO is clear: although lasting longer than anticipated, ISAF’s aims will be achieved and prove sustainable in the long term.
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Ian Davis: Criticism of Germany as an unreliable military ally is widespread and growing. But rather than deregulating the rules of German military engagement, we should be looking to include similar non-aggression clauses in the national legislation of other NATO member states.
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Péter Marton: Euro-discourse often derides Americans for not recognizing “complexity” around them. The opposite is true in Afghanistan. The European countries present in the North are not particularly interested in learning a lot about the social context they are operating in, and they are generally slow to adapt to changes in their area of operations.
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Joshua Foust: The Bundeswehr has evolved from refusing to kill known militants to calling in air strikes based on flimsy evidence. The German deployment has been a complete failure. The Bundeswehr is consistently undermining the allied tasks in Afghanistan and should either reevaluate or withdraw.
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Christopher Lee Davis: NATO’s near-term priority in Afghanistan must be the implementation of the new strategy to which member-states agreed at their last summit. Time is of the essence since the situation on the ground continues to deteriorate. The alliance-wide agreement offers new momentum to focus on five critical areas.
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Abbas Daiyar: The recent insurgency in Kunduz province is due to the arrival of Tahir Yaldosh, the Uzbek Al-Qaeda leader. A lack of allied forces is a major concern and NATO should pay more attention to Kunduz, which is slowly falling under the control of groups linked to Al-Qaeda.
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Editorial Team: The Bundeswehr pursues insurgents in Northern Afghanistan with heavy firepower. Members of atlantic-community.org, will this more assertive approach lead to more stability in Afghanistan? Has a “psychological threshold” been crossed in Germany?
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Marie Lall: The West continues to misunderstand Pakistani realities on the ground. It must alter its hawkish approach towards the region and embrace a deeper understanding of the views across Pakistan. A radical policy shift and investments to stabilize the economy must be made before Western involvement turns sour.
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Editorial Team: Terrorism and the proliferation of nuclear weapons are growing threats for the EU. 30 international experts interviewed by Atlantic-Community.org nearly unanimously call for a much stronger EU commitments to the stabilization of Pakistan than promised at yesterday’s EU-Pakistan summit. The EU should complement US strategy with a long-term focus on state building.
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Shaun R Gregory: Pakistan is one of the most complex and intractable security problems facing the international community. Its importance in relation to two of world’s most pressing security issues – Islamic terrorism and nuclear proliferation – is difficult to overstate, as are the catastrophic consequences, regionally and internationally, which would follow the collapse of the state.
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Memo 17: Enlargement, Russian relations and internal cooperation will test NATO’s ability to compromise and strike bargains in the upcoming months and years. In return for greater decision-making power, European NATO member states must increase contributions to the Alliance.
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Olaf Theiler: The balance of burden sharing is crucial to the strength of the alliance. Contributions ranging from military personnel to medical equipment are vital to securing successful outcomes. Ensuring NATO is cohesive is crucial to its future effectiveness.
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Editorial Team: Does one achievement stand out as a significant development at the infancy of the Obama presidency’s foreign policy, or have the early signs of progress been exaggerated out of context? Take part in our poll and vote what you think Obama’s greatest achievement has been.
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Parag Khanna: President Obama’s administration may need to look outside of its traditional set of allies in order to secure stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the surrounding regions. There will be a cost attached to this cooperation, but the cost of failure may be higher.
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Jordan Michael Smith: In yesterday’s speech, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described Afghanistan as “NATO’s biggest challenge”. NATO has agreed to resume high-level contacts with Russia on this issue, but President Obama also has a key role in ensuring that Afghanistan is transformed into a liberal democracy.
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Stefanie Babst: If governments are to deal effectively with the key foreign policy challenges of our age, they must engage in a new form of public diplomacy: one that combines understanding a given challenge with the ability to mobilize networks and public support to bring about concrete change.
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Abbas Daiyar: The US’ latest program to arm tribal groups in Afghanistan to fight the Taliban is based on flawed comparisons with Iraq. Prominent ethnic and tribal tensions will only flourish, entrenching instability and increasing bloodshed. The US and NATO must understand these realities and rethink the plan.
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Memo 11: The war in Afghanistan is as much about winning militarily and politically as it is about winning the media battle against the Taliban. What it takes is an effective communication strategy that reaches Afghans in their daily life and respects conditions on the ground.
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From the Editorial Team: British Defence Secretary John Hutton has called upon NATO allies to pull their weight and share the burden in Afghanistan. In one of the most outspoken speeches from a British defence minister in years, Hutton reprimands some EU members for a lack of commitment to global security interests.
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Assem Akram: It is time for strategy overhaul in Afghanistan. The size of the Afghan army must be dramatically increased; foreign troops should lock down borders; Pakistan must become a partner in providing solutions in Afghanistan; and the Afghan government needs top-to-bottom reform. Progress can only come with security.
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Florian Broschk: The Western effort to conquer “hearts and minds” in Afghanistan is being hindered by a failure to recognize the core role of religion in Afghan society. The West must integrate the language of Islamic morality into its counterinsurgency mission.
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NATO Channel: Afghanistan’s symbolic Highway 1 is coming under increased attacks from insurgents placing explosives in bridges and culverts. These attempts to disrupt this important route for both commerce and the movement of people can only be countered through coordinated efforts from ISAF and the Afghan people.
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Interview with Amb. Zulfacar: One hundred thousand young Afghans with a high school diploma will not have a place at university in 2010. This is both a humanitarian catastrophe and a threat to security. The Afghan ambassador to Germany H. E. Maliha Zulfacar, speaks about the wishes, hopes and fears of the men and women of her country.
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Stanley R. Sloan: The hegemonic behavior of the Bush administration during its first term almost led to the end of the transatlantic partnership. The US will not be able to face the challenges of this century without its allies and NATO. A closely coordinated US-EU-NATO cooperation is essential to attain shared interests.
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David S. Yost : In order to deal with new security challenges, NATO is developing its concept for cooperation with civilian organizations. Since the early 1990’s, the European Union, the OSCE and the United Nations have been the closest partners. Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan are showing how crucial it is to expand this work.
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Daoud Sultanzoy: Daoud Sultanzoy, an Afghan member of Parliament, gives his impression of the risks that his country runs if it does not connect with its people during the coming elections. A growing list of tribulations the common Afghan faces is enumerated - concerns that military might alone would be hard-pressed to mitigate.
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Bernhard Lucke: The US and NATO should develop exit strategies instead of increasing their military presence in Afghanistan. Winning back tribal leaders’ allegiance is the key to successfully drawing down troops. Western policy makers can learn many valuable lessons from the Soviet failure in Afghanistan.
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NATO Review: Ahmed Rashid, author of the seminal book ‘Taliban,’ talks to NATO Review’s Paul King about how terror, tribalism and the Taliban fit together in present-day Afghanistan.
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Sepideh Parsa: Despite efforts to combat the drug production in Afghanistan, figures continue to rise. To avert the threat which arises from the resurgence of terrorist groups, and to ensure international security, the international community has to make a long- term commitment. This paper aims to outline the dynamics of the Afghan drug economy, focusing on the effectiveness of measures carried out under international law.
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Daniel Korski: EU engagement in Afghanistan will affect Washington’s perception of its strategic partnership. The best way for the EU to stay a strong partner is to extend the aid-and-security approach of its Provincial Reconstruction Teams and take the concept to Kabul. Diplomacy with Pakistan will remain important.
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Royal United Services Institute (RUSI): Bringing food to millions of Afghans can have both strategic and humanitarian results. An operation styled on the Berlin Airlift could also bring new actors to Afghanistan. Likewise, it might be a necessity for keeping the Afghan government afloat, since access to food during famine can determine political allegiances.
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Memo 9: Afghanistan needs a continued international commitment to ensure its security and assist in economic and social development. The US, EU and Germany must focus on training local authorities. Cooperating with Iran and the Taliban remains a point of debate.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: Obama will move with regard to matters of detention and climate change in a direction, favoring European interests. However, bridging the transatlantic gap is not definite. With the US economy in danger there is little scope to make dramatic policy shifts. Europe must speak clearly, so that both partners can converge again.
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Simon K. Koschut: President-elect Obama faces a tough challenge once he takes office. The world is expecting change from America, but they shouldn’t hope for too much, too fast. Instead, in countries like Germany, the question needs to be “what can we do for the United States?” Likely topics of discussion will regard burden sharing in Afghanistan and possibly even Iraq.
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Eckart von Klaeden: No matter whom the American voters elect, a radical change in US foreign policy towards its European allies is unlikely. Both McCain and Obama would generally continue to follow the multilateral course pursued by President Bush in his second term of office and before him by President Clinton.
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Morgan Sheeran: Europe can contribute to progress in Afghanistan outside of the military arena: mentoring Afghan ministry officials, instilling policies of good governance, and developing the Afghan economy could ultimately provide as much security as any troop contribution.
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Florian Broschk: Extending the German ISAF mandate requires a broad public debate on the mission’s goals and strategies in Afghanistan. Germany must recognize the importance of counterinsurgency and improve a variety of its tactics - human intelligence, language training, and a greater troop presence.
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Abbas Daiyar: The Afghan Foreign Minister’s statement opposing talks with insurgents emphasizes existing divisions within government circles in Afghanistan and abroad. The US and NATO must win the war in Afghanistan. Involving regional countries like Russia, China and India may prevent history from repeating itself.
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From the Editorial Team: General John Craddock, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, criticizes member states’ “wavering political will,” which prevents NATO from operating effectively. Is NATO an outdated body as many claim, or can it overcome political hesitations and remain a strong alliance?
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Morgan Sheeran: The Afghans have to secure their own country. The army has benefitted from Western training, but the police continues to lack active mentoring from ISAF. While a surge of combat troops in Afghanistan could be beneficial, what is needed the most are more police trainers and mentors. The police is the lynchpin of security for each village.
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David Neil Lebhar: Ahmed Rashid argues that the conflict in Afghanistan needs a regional solution, including US-Iranian cooperation. The German military must intensify operations in northern Afghanistan, and the government has to educate the public about the mission’s importance.
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Djörn Eversteijn: NATO’s reliance on its global partnerships may seem innocuous today. Contributions in Afghanistan from a diverse array of nations, such as Australia and South Korea, are seen as indispensable in security and reconstruction efforts. Until a full commitment by member states is exhibited, though, NATO’s long-term credibility is in danger.
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Thorsten Benner & Lars Zimmermann: Germany lacks an informed and responsible debate on the country’s engagement in Afghanistan. The looming populism of the 2009 election year is set to make matters even worse. Politicians and the media must prevent this from happening.
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Atlantik-Brücke’s Young Leaders: The Atlantic partners must jointly address the economic slowdown, competition over scarce resources and energy dependence. Moreover, the transatlantic relationship faces an immediate, critical test in Afghanistan. Success there is needed as a demonstration of our ability to effectively address common security threats.
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Djörn Eversteijn: Afghanistan is the litmus test for the relevance of history’s most successful military alliance in the 21st century. Despite official statements that emphasize the importance of the alliance’s mission in Afghanistan, both member states’ long-term commitment and substantial contributions to the mission remain largely absent. Member states’ unwillingness not only endangers the future of Afghanistan, but, perhaps even more importantly, also puts the future of the transatlantic alliance at risk.
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Bernhard Lucke: It is not lack of civil investment, but the occupation that is the problem in Afghanistan. The “war on terror” is creating terrorism instead of controlling it. We are getting used to eroding morals and rising brutality, a way which may lead to new big wars.
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Interview with Hussain Haqqani: Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States reaffirms his country’s democracy and promises better cooperation with the United States and Afghanistan in an interview with Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation.
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From the Editorial Team: In his nomination speech, the Democratic presidential candidate reiterates his commitment to direct diplomacy with Iran and his hawkish position on Pakistan. What do you make of Barack Obama’s security policy positions?
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Marek Swierczynski: The Georgian war diverted the world’s attention from Afghanistan. But events on the ground, implications of the conflict in the Caucasus and political turmoil in neighboring Pakistan make imminent the perspective of NATO snared in a war that cannot be won. A new strategy is urgently needed.
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Eva Diez: The Spanish government asserts its soldiers are only involved in humanitarian operations. But in Afghanistan their main mission is to enable the US to realize its own strategic plans. Now is the right time for Spain to define and press for its own interests.
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From the Editorial Team: Former German foreign minister Fischer criticizes the attitude of German politicians who refuse to send troops to the south of Afghanistan. He accuses Germany of conducting a security policy of “free riding.” What do you think? Is he right?
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Anatol Lieven: NATO might fail in Afghanistan. Hopes for democracy, development, and progress in Afghanistan are already dead. Even though the situation seems hopeless, the West can and should prevent further deterioration.
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Péter Marton: Afghanistan needs an external security guarantee for the long term. NATO should provide that guarantee against clashing external influence-seeking endeavours, but it can only do so it if it sheds its geopolitical identity for the Afghan mission. That is how a neutral strategic identity could be secured for Afghanistan.
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James Jones: While NATO forces are needed in Afghanistan, the real focus should be on fighting narcotics, building up an effective judicial system, increasing Afghan police capabilities, empowering a single individual to represent the international community, and acknowledging regional difficulties.
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T. Noetzel & B. Schreer: Despite a theoretically clear strategy, NATO is both politically and militarily ill-prepared to execute the required counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan. An Afghan disaster might not be a death sentence for the Alliance, but would certainly have major repercussions.
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Marek Swierczynski: NATO’s decision to delay a major enlargement should only be viewed in a positive light if it results in better management of the Afghan mission, and the Alliance keeps up the pace to relaunch negotiations with Ukraine and Georgia.
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Rüdiger Lentz: Increasing debates within the Alliance about the inequity of risk- and burden-sharing among its members overshadow the upcoming summit in Bucharest. Especially, the Germans are being pressured by Washington and their Western allies to send more fighting troops to Afghanistan.
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Wess Mitchell: While the United States has been prodding the alliance’s second-tier members, newcomers have stepped up in Afghanistan.
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Uta Ermler: A comparison of statistics in road casualty to killed German soldiers in Afghanistan points out, that the increasing danger in the south should be no reason for the refusal of the German government to deploy troops in southern Afghanistan.
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Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: When in Washington, Tusk will need to address the role of Polish troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, the necessity of easing visa requirements, and the proposed missile defense shield. Most importantly, Tusk should use his visit to build name recognition and focus on issues important to Poland.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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D. Korski & M. Williams: NATO’s members need to take action if the 60 year old alliance is to survive as a useful organization.
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Dieter Farwick: The NATO defense ministers’ meeting should conclude with an agreement to send additional forces to Afghanistan. The troops can win if given the necessary resources and operational freedom.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Dr. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg: The latest survey of Afghan attitudes toward ISAF activities stresses the need for continued German engagement in Afghanistan.
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Memo 3: Members of the Atlantic Community question German participation in OEF, support ISAF and want increased emphasis on social issues in Afghanistan. In this Executive Summary, Annette Poelking of the Atlantic Initiative has more on members’ ideas for Afghanistan and an update on the ongoing debate.
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Niklas Keller: of the Atlantic Initiative recommends transparent negotiations with the Taliban and local pro-Taliban groups, in order to help curb insurgent violence in Afghanistan.
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Niklas Keller: of the Atlantic Initiative calls corruption one of the greatest obstacles to development in Afghanistan. The international community must create an incentive structure at both the governmental and local levels which is more attractive than corrupt activities.
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Atlantic Happy Hour: NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer came to Berlin on a mission to get more German troops into the south of Afghanistan. As the guest of honor at an event run by the Atlantic Initiative, publisher of the Atlantic Community, Scheffer appeared with representatives from five of Germany’s political parties to respond to questions on the future of operations in Afghanistan.
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Markus Kaim: I advocate merging the military capabilities of Germany’s three current mandates under the ISAF umbrella to bring transatlantic equilibrium to the burden-sharing in Afghanistan. Military participation in Operation Enduring Freedom should end, and ISAF Aerial Reconnaissance and Surveillance should be integrated into a single ISAF directive.
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David G. Haglund: I blame disagreement over Afghanistan for the disappearance of the golden relationship between Berlin and Ottawa. Canada’s “perfect peacekeepers” want Germans to shoulder their fair share of the NATO burden.
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Thomas Speckmann: Iraq’s label as a “second Vietnam” for the United States does not hold up to scrutiny. Recent changes to US military strategy on terrorism— building infrastructure, winning hearts and minds—come straight out of the Bundeswehr handbook, and they’re working. So why not take them to Kabul?
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GM Roper: If Germany expects US help in the future, it must stay the course in Afghanistan now. The Bundeswehr should carry its share of the coalition burden without complaint as part of OEF.
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Niels Annen: I question the sustainability of Operation Enduring Freedom. And I see deteriorating coordination between ISAF and OEF and asks whether it is time to choose between the two.
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Michael John Williams: The EU Battlegroups, though small, are a step in the right direction. The United States can and should play a role in promoting further advancement of European expeditionary capability.
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Anatol Lieven: The political stakes in Pakistan are the highest in 40 years. It is time to create a new, firmer and more institutionalized civilian-military relationship.
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Memo 1: Members of the Atlantic Community commented on the appropriate role for the EU in Afghanistan.
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Karsten Voigt: Shifting German troops out of the north of Afghanistan would be detrimental to the country. The troops should stay with their original mission, as they are providing significant support to the allied forces.
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Julianne Smith: I want the EU to take a stronger role in Afghanistan. The EU should act as a coordinating body for the reconstruction and development of the country. This would also strengthen Europe’s standing with its partners.
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Karsten Voigt: I cannot foresee an end to the German and Allied commitment in Afghanistan as long as the Taliban pose a threat to the country’s stability. We cannot allow pro-terrorist groups to take over, and that good governance is a priority.
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Global Must Read Articles
The anti-Europe discourse is fashionable again these days in American tribunes. ++ “Pacifist Europe” progressively withdrawing its commitment from NATO’s engagement in Afghanistan fuels scepticism towards the everlasting European partner. ++ In spite of this overall pessimistic tone, the Obama’s administration should publicly support the transatlantic partnership because the United States and
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The wife of last week’s CIA suicide bomber raises the topic of female Jihadi support. ++ Online dissemination of radical ideologies allows women to participate in jihad by overcoming religious dilemmas regarding their inherent inferior status in society. ++ “Writing is also a bomb:” online chat rooms offer platforms for communiqués and articles of fanatical expression. ++
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The U.S. government has all but ignored the conflict in Kashmir and espoused a “hands off” approach on the issue. However, pressure to engage is increasing. After all, a resolution of the Kashmir conflict, which pits two nuclear powers against one another, is closely tied to failure or success in Afghanistan. It is therefore crucial not only to security in South Asia, but to U.S. national
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Apart from Pakistan, President Obama did not talk about the role of any other stakeholders in the region in his speech. ++ It was an unwise decision not to mention Iran, considering the role it has to play in tackling regional drug traffic. ++ Afghanistan’s narco-economy should be considered as important a problem as terrorism. ++ With the majority of the Afghan drug trade passing through Iran, a
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After the surge, there will be as many troops in Afghanistan as there are in Iraq. ++ Obama’s new strategy is nothing more than the obvious result of a war by committee. ++ Unconventional wars are won by earning and keeping the loyalty of civilians. ++ Furthermore, between entrance and exit lies only a half-hearted anti-guerilla campaign. ++ The hope is to realize the same success in
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Obama and Karzai may be “hopelessly at odds” but they are “condemned to the mutual pursuit of success in Afghanistan.” ++ US policy now depends on how well Karzai can stabilize his country and not only on military impact. ++ Despite pressure Obama cannot afford to reduce aid as a sanction as this would “delay the timing of a US withdrawal even further.” ++
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Obama’s prolonged deliberation about Afghanistan risks undermining his commitment to whichever decision he ends up making. ++ As there is unanimity in the Pentagon and considerable agreement in Congress and among NATO allies about the need for additional American and NATO troops, it is remarkable that Obama has requested yet another study. ++ “It is not enough for a president to be seen as having
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Since Afghan elections have ended with Mr Karzai securing another five-year term, the doubts about his legitimacy should be put to rest. ++ The key problem now isn’t Afghanistan’s President but the uncertainty about Mr. Obama’s commitment to his own counterinsurgency strategy. ++ As long as doubts exist, NATO, Pakistan and Mr. Karzai will use this vacuum to hedge their bets. ++ “If Mr. Obama
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The US needs to reduce its footprint in Afghanistan and start focussing on nation-building at home. ++ The US “does not have the Afghan partners, the NATO allies, the domestic support, the financial resources or the national interest to justify an enlarged and prolonged nation-building effort in Afghanistan.” ++ Although withdrawal may create new threats, so will staying and a stronger America
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Mr Obama must choose a strategy on the war with Afghanistan and persist with it, as delay and indecision will prove dangerous in the face of public opinion. ++ The latest excuse for delay, namely that a decision cannot be made without a legitimate partner in Kabul is “puzzling”, as the administration did nothing to ensure that the vote was clean. ++ “Whatever the administration decides, it must
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The early victory, coupled with key mistakes and the over use of air support at the start of the conflict has led to the present, dire security situation. ++ The “pacification of a country needs boots on the ground [and] the tiny US military footprint bred a long-term disaster.” ++ The immense airpower used by ISAF forces has alienated the Afghan population leaving them hostile
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The priority in Afghanistan should not be to send more soldiers, but to alter the image of the US and its allies as foreign occupiers. ++ Statistics show that increasing troops in Afghanistan, has in the past directly led to a rise in suicide bombings and other terrorist attacks directed at the US and allied troops. ++ Therefore, America should adopt a “new strategy of off-shore balancing,
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Although the security situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated considerably, largely due to Hamid Karzai’s ineffective and corrupt government, injecting more troops could provoke an antigovernment or nationalist backlash. ++ Instead, “the US and Afghan government need to make much greater efforts to wean Pashtun tribes away from the most radical Taliban factions.” ++ Considering the central
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After only nine months in office, it is time for President Obama to make some tough decisions on ‘his war’ in Afghanistan. ++ His options are shifting the focus from Afghanistan to a targeted anti-terrorist campaign, or alternatively, calling for a full-scale counter insurgency-war to take down the Taliban. ++ Obama should not seek the middle way as that would risk the worst of both worlds:
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General Stanley McChrystal, the US commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, should get the additional 40,000 troops he requires. ++ Although polls show that the American public has no interest in staying in Afghanistan, the costs of losing the war are underestimated. ++ Full-fledged anti-Americanism and regional powers such as Russia, China and Iran stepping in, are but two of the possible
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Obama looks to be uncertain if his grand strategy for Afghanistan will work. ++ Even though the US does not have vital interests in the Middle East it still has an obligation to stay until the end and support Kabul. ++ “Democrats have to realize that more time is needed, and Republicans must acknowledge that America’s combat commitment cannot be indefinite.” ++ “Defeat for
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President Obama must not add to the 21,000 troops that he has sent to Afghanistan recently as this would be an historic mistake. ++ This will only serve to “galvanize local people to back the Taliban in repelling the infidels.” ++ Leading intelligence officials are increasingly warning that Washington does not understand the determination of the opposition and the danger of
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The Taliban’s “don’t vote or we”ll blow you up” message aims to make the outcome of today’s election in Afghanistan appear illegitimate. ++ This is what the West is fighting against. ++ If not enough people have the courage to participate, the president’s right to rule might be put in doubt. ++ For the sake of Afghanistan’s future it is of crucial importance that the victor of the elections is
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US stabilization plans for Afghanistan miss the main reason for the ongoing Talib insurgency, ethnic conflicts. ++ The largest ethnic group, the Pashtun tribe, support the Taliban because their rivals, the Tajiks, have all the political power. ++ “‘They get the dollars, and we get the bullets,’ is the common refrain among Pashtuns critical of the government.” ++ To achieve
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If the western coalition wants to win the war in Afghanistan in the long term, they have to let the Afghans do their own fighting. ++ “The Taliban are Afghans, to be dealt with by Afghans” and the West “shouldn’t make this a NATO war, allowing the Afghans to stand back.” ++ To make the Afghans properly deal with the situation, local forces need to be built up even more. ++ To this end,
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After 8 years, Afghanistan is not independent or democratic, and women are as bad off as ever. ++ This will not improve until Western soldiers leave, as “history teaches that we always reject occupation and foreign domination.” ++ “It is not in your interest to [send] more young people to war, and to have more of your taxpayers’ money fund an occupation that keeps a gang of corrupt warlords and
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The UK and other countries must pull out most of their forces from Afghanistan. ++ More troops will not lead to less military casualties. ++ Al-Quaeda does not need Afghanistan as a training ground, as it can count on affiliates in many other countries. ++ “If counter-terror and Pakistan’s stability are our real concerns- as they ought to be-” then UK and US troops must concentrate on the real
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Britain and the US seek dialogue with the Taliban but the Taliban are not in the mood to talk. ++ Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s wants military victory and nothing can stop the war in Afghanistan except a clear defeat of the occupation armies. ++ He set up a coherent fighting strategy amongst different Taliban groups that aims to launch attacks on NATO. ++ Additionally, al-Qaeda will continue to
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Ridding Afghanistan of al-Qaida is not worth our soldiers’ lives, as “the world is full of places where [they] can hide and operate.” ++ The true war on terror “is about hearts and minds, not soldiers dead in a ditch… The hearts and the minds that matter here are Pakistani ones.” ++ The Taliban was created by Pakistani military schemers to counter India; if these two solve their historical
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The international community is taking inventory of their expenditure in Afghanistan. ++ The results will reveal a wide range of shortfalls, especially on behalf of the EU. ++ In spite of the existing realization that the Afghan war will not be won with weapons, inadequacies such as “deficits in international coordination, unkept promises and rivalry among governments” must be addressed. ++ “There
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German politicians must address public questions about NATO involvement in Afghanistan. ++ They must recognize that the war entails risks, and costs - including German lives - and communicate to Germans that they owe their soldiers respect, empathy and support. ++ Finally, they must admit that wars are not won half-heartedly: keeping the number of troops low increases the necessity for air
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The US cannot abandon Pakistan and Afghanistan. ++ If the Taliban and al-Qaeda are allowed to triumph, their destabilizing alliance will spread. ++ To ensure that the forces of fanaticism are defeated, we have to succeed not only militarily but politically, economically and socially. ++ “The West, most notably the US, has been all too willing to dance with dictators in pursuit of perceived
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The road to more
security and stability in Afghanistan runs exclusively through Pakistan. Only
if the Pakistani leadership manages to avoid the collapse of political order
and the stem the march of the Taliban out of the northwest of the country will
peace in Afghanistan have a real chance. US President Obama and his foreign
policy team have finally realized this reality. Supporting the
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Since the end of the
Cold War there have been regular prognoses concerning the absolution of NATO.
In fact since then the Alliance has undergone scores of tests: Bosnia, Kosovo,
9/11, Iraq and most recently Afghanistan. In addition to these trials came the
eight years of the Bush administration, whose indifference toward consensus and
diplomacy had corrosive effects on NATO. However, the
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The claim it is possible to divide Taliban moderates from radicals is based on desperation for a strategic response and not historical reflection and hard analysis. ++ The Taliban are the fiercest and most inflexible Sunni-based extremists with intolerance for differences in Islam. ++ Their genocide against the Hazara epitomizes their brutality. ++ Unlike other Muslim extremists, they lack
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President Zardari thinks the Taliban is a monster created by Pakistan’s ISI and the CIA. ++ President Obama’s policy on South Asia is very different from that of his predecessors. ++ His focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan demonstrates their importance on stabilizing the region. ++ US monetary support is also dependent on Pakistan taking action against extremists. ++ The new approach is a
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Gen. Petraeus faces a tougher fight in Afghanistan then Iraq in applying his counterinsurgency tactics; to first hit the insurgency hard to then strip away the moderates.++ His asset of strong diplomatic support to enable a regional approach, is upset by two current difficulties: instable Pakistan, crucial to military success, is sceptical of cooperation, and there remains a lack
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Afghanistan, and now Pakistan, have evolved into wars of attrition.++ There are truly four wars- the western war in Afghanistan, war in the border region, war between Islamist and weak Pakistani government, and a US war against al-Qaeda- that remains crucial to the US and NATO security.++ 60 Nuclear war heads in reach of al-Qaeda underscore the importance of the conflict.++ European governments
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The international community is falling “woefully short” of financing Afghanistan’s needs. ++ Security is better funded than any other sector including economic and social development. ++ If this continues, “the suffering of a very poor population will get worse, fuelling support for the fundamentalist insurgency that threatens the entire region”. ++ Aid must be increased and managed by the
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The global community is slowly realizing the magnitude of the dangers the current problems Pakistan and Afghanistan carry for the world. ++ France has taken an active role, “committed to contributing its full weight to help settle these conflicts.” ++ Efforts to stabilize Afghanistan will fail if Pakistan does not participate fully in the fight against terrorism. ++ The solution
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Ambassador Maliha Zulfacar taught sociology as a professor at California Polytechnic State University before her current position representing Afghanistan in Germany. In our interview she speaks about the wishes, hopes and fears of the men and women of her country. She is concerned for the hundred thousand young Afghans with high school diplomas who may not have a place at universities in 2010,
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The latest strategy to deal with the Taliban has drawn praise from NATO but the lack of infrastructure in Pakistan casts doubt on its chances of success. ++ Indians welcomed the announcement from Richard Holbrooke that India “is the absolutely critical leader in the region” in relation to its role in Afghanistan. ++ They also have a significant role to play in Islamabad. ++ The instability in
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Future strategy in Afghanistan is being debated more strongly than before: more money, more soldiers, stronger European involvement, and negotiations with moderate Taliban. But the allied troops on site have to solve completely different problems first: obtaining fresh supplies has recently become the Achilles’ heel of the international troops in Afghanistan. More and more often Taliban forces
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On April 4 the Atlantic Alliance will celebrate its 60th birthday. ++ An apt occasion to review its tasks and raison d’etre with a changed décor and security challenges. ++ There are several issues to tackle. ++ It is clear is that Article 5 should remain at the core of NATO and new tasks and memberships should only take place if accompanied by an effective increase in the security
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Silence often prevails over the denouncing of atrocities that take place in the Muslim world because the fear of compromising dialogue is huge. ++ Yet, there is a limit to the threshold of acceptance. ++ Even if communication between the Muslim and Western communities is key, when fundamental human rights such as discrimination and violence against women are at stake we cannot close our eyes. ++
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Obama’s long awaited new strategy in Afghanistan has finally been presented by the President last Friday March, 27th. ++ The delivered strategy has proven to be comprehensive in understanding the wide dimension of the challenge — for instance that Pakistan is also part of the problem — and viewing it in more than solely military terms. ++ This is an important step towards victory in
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The approaching G20 will also be the first meeting between President Medvedev and President Obama. ++ Recently, the US has shown increased willingness to reconstruct their relations with the Kremlin whose cooperation is much needed on the Afghan and Iraqi Dossiers. ++ Yet, the US ought to move with care; Russia is not only eager to maintain influence in its “near abroad,” in addition “Moscow also
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From the outside it may appear that the situation in Afghanistan is continuing to worsen. ++ US commanders are confident that they can shift the momentum in their favor. ++ This would be a result of increased resources.++There are still concerns that Western governments “will give up on the war before the counterinsurgency strategy can pay off.”++Time and effort is needed to sufficiently resource
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While a US victory in Afghanistan would benefit Russia in terms of controlling the spread of Islamists in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Russia needs to be prepared for potential failure. ++ Given that the potential of a Russian led military force is unlikely, the back up plan is to do it the “Chechnya” way; establish a “sphere of influence” in North Afghanistan given
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Sober assessment of the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan has prompted a recasting of policy from President Obama. ++ Reconciliation with moderate aspects of the Taliban should be considered. ++ The need exists to combine “force with talks” while also working toward economic development. ++ Peace with the Taliban must not mean that they are allowed to enforce extreme measures, such as the
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According to US envoy Holbrooke, Afghanistan is tougher than Vietnam. ++ The Taliban have the advantage of operating on their terrain and have a network of supporters providing them superior intelligence. ++ Thus, the mechanism of operation ought to be rethought in order to minimize the disadvantage. ++ Countries bordering Afghanistan plus the US, Britain and Russia should share intelligence to
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Recently arrived in office,
US President Obama has
announced an increase of 17,000 American troops in Afghanistan. Experts consider at
least twice this amount necessary for progress. At the same time US Defense
Secretary Robert Gates is realizing that the Pentagon will not be spared from
the effects of the financial crisis. Indeed, the highest departmental cuts in
expenditure are looming in
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Faced with a choice between staying and winning or withdrawing and ending the war in Vietnam, Nixon chose the former. ++ The outcome of his policy was complete failure. ++ Obama is now faced with a similar decision. ++ In choosing an exit policy for Iraq and deciding upon future policy in Afghanistan he should let history carry the day. ++ In this way he will avoid making Nixon’s mistakes
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The deployment of an additional 17,000 US troops in Afghanistan is a welcome response to the enduring threat of the Taliban. ++ Military might alone, however, is no solution: “defeating the insurgency means understanding it.” ++ State-building and incentives to deter opportunistic insurgents are needed. ++ Pakistani talebanization must also be urgently addressed and the government’s
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The pledge for a new era of cooperation made by Joe Biden during the Security Conference in Munich has been received with great enthusiasm worldwide. ++ Europe is, however, slowly realizing that the cost of Obama’s multilateralism outweighs the benefits. ++ Caught in an unprecedented economic tempest, the European partners will be forced to concentrate on domestic matters instead of sending
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The Munich Security Conference revealed to Germany the price it will have to pay if it wants to be America’s dear friend: increased troop deployment in Afghanistan and a preparedness to stand by the US if Iran remains uncooperative. ++ But while the US is extending the hand of cooperation to Germany, the latter seems nostalgic for the “era before the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
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The long-term solution to Afghanistan’s security does not lie in sending in new soldiers but in the Afghan army. ++ This army is basic but innovative; its greatest strength is the sense of national identity which governs it. ++ Enlarging its responsibilities should be the key priority of the coalition: the linguistic and ethnic challenges of Afghanistan can be far better overcome by
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No-one in their right mind would go up against the combined forces of Gen. Petraeus, Amb. Holbrooke, Defence Sec. Gates, Sec. of State Clinton and the Iraq-hardened US military. ++ But a US victory still needs coherence of military and regional strategy, increased civilian capacity and improved cooperation with allies. ++ Add Afghani hatred for Taliban-imposed tyranny and poverty and Obama’s
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This year the international community could achieve a major breakthrough in the anti-drug war being waged in Afghanistan. The last two years have witnessed large surpluses in drug production resulting in falling prices and stockpiling of poppy seeds. A decline in poppy cultivated areas is expected for this year. James Townsend, UN advisor in Afghanistan, sees this a unique chance: strengthened
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A recent Taliban bridge bombing in Pakistan which cut off supply lines to NATO forces in Afghanistan has once again highlighted the vulnerability of passing through Pakistan. ++The US is, however, running out of luring alternatives; considering Russia as a substitute would require the US “to pledge that it will respect the Russian sphere of influence in the former USSR,” a guarantee Obama is
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Annette Heuser is executive director of the Bertelsmann Foundation Washington DC, a private, nonpartisan operating foundation, working to promote and strengthen transatlantic cooperation. Before launching the Bertelsman
Foundation in Washington DC, Ms. Heuser served in the corporate sector as Vice President of
International Relations at Bertelsmann AG in Guetersloh, Germany, and as the
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Barack Obama is revealing himself to be a foreign policy hawk. ++ After just one week, his stance on Sudan, Pakistan and Gaza shows bellicosity. ++ To pursue such a stance, he will need the support of the pro-war left, “voracious defenders” of a 21st C brand of liberal imperialism. ++ In spite of the Iraq catastrophe, humanitarian intervention in Darfur and escalation in Afghanistan
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Analysts and scholars warn that the problems that the US faces in Afghanistan - continued insurgencies, opium production, a US army demoralized and drained of resources given the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan - will compromise the success of any new deployments in the region. ++ In the midst of the financial crisis and with firm evidence that the US commitment in Afghanistan contributes to the
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Global power is increasingly spread-out and is tipping towards Asia. ++ This shift will shape Obama’s political agenda, forcing him to distance himself from unilateralism. ++ Asia is planning an alternative to the IMF and the US must acknowledge that it is losing economic decision-making power. ++ China can help to stabilize Afghanistan as it has close economic relations with the country.
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NATO has become “a military alliance without any political clout” and is in the midst of an identity crisis. ++ The campaign in Afghanistan is suffering because of NATO’s lack of a political voice and a lack of cohesion between Brits and Americans ++ Its vacillation over granting MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia is further evidence of its
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“Japan’s near-total opposition to participating in its allies’ military struggles is no longer defensible.” ++ Having made an “easy transition to democracy” after World War Two and now enjoying economic success and stability, Japan has no justification for shying away from the same responsibilities as its counterparts. ++ “Robust Japanese
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Two attacks against US and NATO convoys near Peshawar in Pakistan have taken place in the last week. ++ The Pakistani army appears to be testing Obama’s will. ++The US and NATO must take adequate steps to respond to these incidents. ++ It is an opportunity for them to acknowledge that the recent attacks in Mumbai were of global proportions and that it was a major mistake to fight the war
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The British military are increasingly angered by the poor international effort to win over hearts and minds in Afghanistan. ++ British generals have been arguing for years that getting the population on side is the key to success. ++ A top official has called the UN’s support “wholly inadequate.” ++ Meanwhile, the Taliban are “winning the information war.” ++ As NATO screams for more
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Germany’s increasingly unilateral foreign policies are causing unrest within the EU and Atlantic alliance. ++ The US, UK and France are frustrated by Berlin’s reluctance to impose sanctions on Iran as well as its limited efforts in Afghanistan. ++ The impending election is a partial explanation for this refusal to engage in bold policies. ++ The generational shift means that
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Assuming Islamist militant groups planned the Mumbai attacks, India’s government will have little choice but to blame Pakistan and would loose domestic credibility if it does not retaliate. ++ This will have massive geopolitical consequences for the US. ++ Unless Pakistan takes immediate steps to suppress Islamist extremists, India and the US will threaten action. ++ Such pressure could
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Terrorism is not the key strategic threat facing the US and Obama’s focus on Afghanistan is misguided. ++ NATO’s overemphasis in 2005 destroyed the stable situation of 2004 and the more focus Afghanistan gets now, the harder it will fall after an inevitable withdrawal. ++ Troop increases distract attention from other pressing issues: monetary aid is wasteful and counterproductive,
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The lessons, as well as the history of Iraq, have been ignored and are now being repeated in Afghanistan. ++ The US and the UK have only succeeded to “reduce what should be one of the world’s richest countries to shambles.” ++ If there is one lesson from Iraq it is that “foreign expeditions undertaken in a spirit of jingoist revenge, with a crazed optimism and no strategic plan,
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Afghanistan has been at war for almost 30 years. ++ The possibility of US exit strategies hovers on the horizon but winning the war would require carpet-bombing of southern Afghanistan. ++ Many Afghans hostile to the Taliban still support the resistance. ++ The British ambassador to Kabul considers the war lost. ++ General Petraeus will not be able to work miracles in Afghanistan. ++ The main
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Obama is going to have a very hard time fulfilling his campaign promises. ++ The heavy financial burden of the market bailout will slow his progress, especially since his tax policy proposals don’t seem to even cover his planned health-care reforms. ++ Obama’s preference for negotiation and economic sanctions might not get results with Iran and N. Korea and Israel’s upcoming
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Obama’s proposed “mini-surge” in Afghanistan of some 15,00 troops will not provide enough personnel for the job. ++ Iraq, a smaller country than Afghanistan, required 700,000 soldiers and security forces; there are only 200,000 in Afghanistan. ++ Robert Gates will aid the Afghans in doubling their military size to 200,000, yet more will eventually be needed. ++ Investing American money, beyond
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Operations in Afghanistan are hamstrung by limitations placed on forces from different nations. ++ Many willing to provide troops lack money or have political constraints. ++ Soldiers are needed not only on the battlefield but also to train security forces, yet “our own security toolbox must be equipped with more than just hammers.” ++ Coordination with EU, NGOs and Afghan government is needed,
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Indian elites are showing insecurity over India’s role with relation to Washington. ++ That Obama is courting Islamabad for support in Afghanistan shouldn’t be cause for worry. ++ The lack of criticism of US military action in Syria from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs is a sign of weakness; confidence is required. ++ India’s response to Iran, Afghanistan, and Syria mustn’t be determined
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Mr. Samiullah Wardak was born in Kabul in 1976 and migrated to Pakistan at the age of five. In 2002 he returned to Afghanistan where he had been engaged in reintegration and refugee issues. Mr. Wardak has worked as a program administrator for the United Nations Human Settlement Program (2003 - 2004), as a program officer and advisor for the United Nations Development Program (2004 - 2007), and is
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The next administration might find itself entangled in a dispute over Kashmir as Obama wants Pakistan to cooperate in Afghanistan. ++ Obama strongly acknowledges the importance of a Indo-US partnership, but what “Indians fear is that they are being asked to pick up the political tab for America’s failed policy in Afghanistan.” ++ If Obama wants India to cooperate he should
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“The ‘Great Game’ is no fun anymore.” ++ A timeout is needed in Afghanistan so that the players, including Obama, can draught a new deal. ++ A global effort to secure Afghanistan’s stability should be above other objectives. ++ Due to the complex global conflict, a solution cannot be reached without a “regional grand bargain,” which must include a comprehensive
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Obama must fulfill his promises of withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and those of diplomacy with Iran. ++ He must close Guantánamo and declare the war on terror is over, realizing that terrorism is a technique, not an ideology. ++ Talks, not air strikes, should take place in Afghanistan. ++ Obama’s plan for “residual forces” in Iraq should be abandoned for a total
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19 US missile attacks since September on suspected terrorists are unlikely to win any hearts and minds, will promote ill will, and will do little to dry “the pond that breeds the mosquitoes.” ++ Michael Chertoff’s plea, backed by Robert Gates, for international law codifying the legality of pre-emptive strikes against countries “harboring a potential terrorist threat” is only
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NATO countries disagree about the floundering mission in Afghanistan, but it is obvious the hardwearing Taliban cannot be crushed by military means alone. ++ More troops would not help keep control in rural areas, where the insurgency is strong. ++ This would prolong the use of air-to-ground bombing to target high-ranking insurgents, resulting in high numbers of civilian casualties. ++ Because
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Sending more troops to Afghanistan will not solve the country’s many deep-rooted problems. ++ A larger military presence could alienate the local population. ++ Iraq should have taught us that more troops don’t necessarily mean more security, as foreign troops often fan the flames of insurgency. ++ Afghanistan requires diplomacy and regional cooperation (including China and Saudi Arabia); it must
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The financial crisis has dominated the US election campaign, marginalizing foreign policy. ++ But it is foreign relations, and especially ties with Iran, that will be at the top of the next president’s agenda. ++ This is not only about Iran’s nuclear capacity; stability of Iraq and Afghanistan, peace in Lebanon and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are all inconceivable without
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Americans believed that imperialism could trump nationalism but the Afghans proved them wrong. ++ Foreign occupation of Afghanistan is triggering a backlash inside of the country, as well as destabilizing Pakistan. ++ There is a cascading opinion among US allies that this war cannot be won. ++ The Afghans have suffered enough and the US simply cannot afford an open-ended war. ++ Sometimes a war
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The Taliban are losing battles in Afghanistan but are winning the war. ++ The situation looks grimmer now than ever before. ++ The war looks it can’t be won, but we must keep trying. ++ NATO can’t win alone, but it should help the Afghan army defend its government - if it’s willing. ++ A civil war could possibly be a key step before being able to reach any kind of agreement
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The British commander admitted that winning in Afghanistan is unlikely - reducing the Taliban insurgency to a manageable level may be the only realizable goal. ++ Northern ethnic groups, which account for 60% of the population, are backed by the US, but the Taliban are still the major political force for the Pashtuns constituting 40% of the people. ++ Foreign forces are fighting Pashtun
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The US Congress has approved a deal that offers India access to American nuclear fuel and technology in exchange for safeguards on India’s nuclear program.++ India considers the US the key to great power status. ++ The US views India as essential for solving international challenges. ++ The next administration must improve cooperation that “reflects the shared principles, shared
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Seven years of war, occupation and reconstruction efforts have not improved the situation in Afghanistan. ++ A lack of security, stability and economic development dominates the political agenda. ++ To succeed in Afghanistan the conception of the ISAF as a reconstruction and OEF as a war mission has to end. ++ Financial resources have to be reorganized; too much is wasted due to mismanagement. ++
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John McCain wants to bring an Iraqi-style surge to Afghanistan to “turn around the war,” but the inability to differentiate between the two countries will ensure failure in Afghanistan. ++ There, there is no sectarian civil war, no “Sons of Afghanistan,” and the proposed surge would not compare with Iraq’s. ++ Most importantly, Afghans want peace at “any cost, even
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Osama Bin Laden called Iraq the “central front” in his fight against the US - he was right. ++ Obama/Biden only focus on the past; they still think invading Iraq was a mistake, a distraction from Afghanistan. ++ Their obsession misses the point: “The essence of being a good commander in chief is appreciating the connections among these theaters.” ++ FDR fought the Nazi’s before assailing Japan,
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US incursions into Cambodia, which led to its destabilization and the rise of the Khmer Rouge, should be remembered. ++ The same mistake is being made in Pakistan, where the dangers are far greater. ++ Undermining Pakistan does not help Afghanistan. ++ A new soft power approach is needed, as “Afghanistan cannot be transformed along Western lines” - a major factor, along with increased bombing
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Pakistan can no longer play its “dangerous double-game”: accepting money form the US while also supporting the Taliban and other extremists. ++ General Kayani has appointed a new spy chief, Lt. Gen Ahmed Shuja, who must work to clean up the intelligence service, root out corrupt officials, and cut ties to extremists that threaten Pakistan’s own fragile democracy. ++ American officials claim that
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By odd coincidence, or perhaps providence, $700bn is roughly the same amount of money squandered on Bush’s “preposterous war in Iraq.” ++ Ironically, the greatest economic crises since the great depression means Obama and McCain won’t have to discuss the “greatest military crisis in America’s history since Vietnam.” ++ This has provided the cover for a strange narrative developing in the US:
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Obama’s foreign policy proposals are too vapid; far from incipient or novel, we are subjected to his recycled ideas - which, albeit, were fresh when first espoused in the face of Bush dogmatism. ++ “These ideas have lost their oomph among discerning voters.” ++ Catching Bin Laden, sending more troops to Afghanistan, and unconditional support for Georgia are all calls from the neocon playbook.
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NATO is facing a wily and pitiless enemy in Afghanistan. ++ Taliban forces have reconstituted themselves into a formidable foe. ++ The transfer of nearly 5,000 troops from Iraq - where the situation is more dire than the Bush administration admits - to Afghanistan is “too few, too late, too slow.” ++ The British were unable to control Afghanistan in the 19th century, the Russians in
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President Bush’s decision to allow US military operations within Pakistan shows how desperate the situation is becoming. ++ But, if the Taliban and other extremists are to be permanently subdued, it must be done by Pakistan itself. ++ The US must convince Pakistan that the fight against extremism is their fight, not just America’s; Pakistan’s leaders must persuade their citizens of the same. ++
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Military victory in Afghanistan is achievable, but are we “willing to pay the high cost?” ++ Chura Valley in Uruzgan province is secure thanks to a Dutch reconstruction team, while in a nearby valley snipers reign. ++ This is a microcosm of Afghanistan. ++ ISAF is facing a new, resilient Taliban, drawn from diverse sources. ++ A military surge is needed to quell restive regions,
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In July President Bush decided to increase attacks by US forces against the Taliban in tribal areas. ++ This increase is in response to the Taliban’s growing strength in Pakistan, more attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan, and an increase in terrorist threats. ++ The US must find a way to balance its relations with President Zardari of Pakistan, and also continue its attacks against the Taliban
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Russia is convinced that it can deal with the West, but worries about the dangerous Afghanistan. ++ The well-being of the Russian economy and a good relationship with its domestic Muslim population depend on a stable Afghanistan. ++ Therefore, the announcement to conduct military maneuvers with Kazakhstan could be a sign that Russia is deciding to take responsibility there. ++ The US was not able
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The war in Afghanistan stands at a critical juncture; the Taliban-led insurgency is gaining in effectiveness and influence. ++ The US troop surge planned to counter this threat is no remedy in itself. ++ NATO should develop a national reconciliation program which would bring ex-Taliban moderates into politics. ++ It is also crucial that the number of Afghan soldiers doubles, their salaries rise,
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The US has to realize that it cannot fight terrorism in Afghanistan successfully without expanding the war on terror into Pakistan. ++ The US should revitalise the coalition of the willing, enhance the cooperation with the Afghan and Pakistani armies, and establish a military bases on Pakistani soil. ++ Furthermore, a supreme commander, with Afghan and Pakistani deputies, should be appointed to
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Instead of demonstrating the noble character of NATO, the so called “good war” in Afghanistan is running out of control. ++ The death toll is rising inexorably, the security situation for aid agencies and women deteriorates and the local population is turning more and more against the Alliance. ++ The only way to resolve the conflict is to withdraw the foreign troops and start negotiating a
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NATO will be 60 next year - a retirement age for most under its command. ++ If it does not want to become redundant it needs to rethink its structure and “streamline its command and control systems in conflict zones.” ++ NATO officials must decide if they should work towards a strong EU defence capability. ++ Georgia and Ukraine are on their way to membership, but there is still a need for the
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The war on terror has been an utter fiasco: before the US troops arrived in 2001 Afghanistan was much more peaceful and stable, now the insurgency has spread all over the country, become multi-ethnic and more robust. ++ American claims of spreading democracy lie buried beneath the hineous crimes perpetrated by its soldiers – this might “culminate in a violent insurgency.“ ++
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The recent escalation of violence in Afghanistan and the calls to divert the US troops from Iraq make the question of ending these long and costly wars even more urgent. ++ There is only one organisation that can provide the leadership necessary to defeat the insurgencies and bring peace and stability to both countries: the UN. ++ US and its allies can never achieve these goals alone. ++ Only the
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The Taliban are the most prominent security threat in Afghanistan, but they are not the only one we should worry about. ++ Over the last few years Afghanistan has become a narco-state: it supplies 93 percent of the world’s heroin and drug trade accounts for a half of the country’s GDP. ++ Afghan opium not only floods European market; it undermines the government in Kabul and finances
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Even though it is Afghanistan that is the main security threat to the US, the road to improvement in that part of the world starts in Pakistan. ++ Al-Qaeda has found a safe haven in Pakistan’s lawless region near the Afghan border, where it has regrouped and reached pre-9/11 strength. ++ The critical role Pakistan plays in security policy has been recognized by Washington; last week Congress
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There is a chorus of America’s closest allies who criticize Karzai because he is not making progress in his fight against militants and corruption in his own government. ++ But he is still the best candidate for the 2009 presidential elections, because he is Pashtun, retains broad multiethnic support, and is Afghanistan’s most popular leader. ++ Karzai needs Western assistance to
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Even if the international military presence has been expanding rapidly in Afghanistan, the country recently experienced one of its bloodiest weeks. ++ A suicide bomber struck the Indian embassy in the capital and killed 41 people. ++ US forces bombed a wedding party causing the death of 47 civilians. ++ The issue of civilian deaths has crystallised anger towards the international community. ++
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The resurgence of the Taliban and al Qaeda demonstrates that the war in Iraq is dangerously diverting attention from the “war of necessity” in Afghanistan. ++ Rather than inflexibly planning to stay on or leave Iraq, candidates should ask whether “Washington would have more influence if it completely withdrew or negotiated a slower drawdown with the Iraqis.” ++ The chances chaos in Iraq could
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The US failed to capitalize on its initial military success in Afghanistan and what seemed to be a finished matter has now redeveloped into a serious threat. ++ “America has only itself to blame” for the current situation. ++ It was distracted with problems in Iraq, failed to eliminate al-Qaeda, and gave insurgents the opportunity to regroup in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas within
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Rather than focusing on force levels, debates about burden-sharing within NATO should look at “defense transformation, operations, and the wider context of the international community’s efforts.” ++ While burden-sharing faces many challenges, more equality is possible through common funding, “transformation efforts to increase the pool of usable and deployable forces,” and increased multinational
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The Pakistani Army no longer fights the counterinsurgency war on their western border. ++ Instead Pakistani troops are deployed at the border to India, where 80% of US aid since 9/11 has been used, although given to fight the Taliban insurgency. ++ Civilian government and the attempt to improve governance and fight corruption in Pakistan and Afghanistan suffer by the withdrawal of troops from the
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Senior Afghan official, Mohammad Z. Wahdats is skeptical that there would be less stability in Afghanistan’s north without the Germans. ++ “For the issue of security, we don’t need them any more. We solve all our problems by ourselves.” ++ Wahdats also calls the German training of the Afghan National Police a failure ++ Germans overstate their engagement and effectiveness in the north and their
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A 30-year lease of the Afghan copper deposits was sold to the China Metallurgical Group for $3 billion, making it the biggest foreign investment in Afghanistan’s history. ++ While critics argue Afghanistan is too ill-equipped to absorb such huge sums of money or to assess the social and environmental costs, most Afghans see the deal as their only chance for the future. ++ The Chinese are
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Democratic governance in Pakistan is now a reality and the new government plans to act boldly and clearly in full awareness of the stakes of both success and failure. ++ The government will continue the war against terrorism not because of international pressure but because the eradication of terrorism is of primary importance to Pakistan. ++ The government intends to demonstrate to its “people
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Musharraf and Bush’s failure to calm Pakistan’s lawless border enabled Al Qaeda to take refuge and gain strength. ++ Pakistanis now think the war is Washington’s because of the civilian casualties. ++ New government has adopted a different course. ++ US should develop a new military strategy, provide more non-military aid, and support the new government which has exceeded
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The traditional role of the state in Europe is diminished, therefore the capacity of EU governments to ask their people for sacrifices is reduced. ++ As the debate over using NATO forces in Afghanistan showed, EU governments are not able to live up to their obligations. ++ The European disillusionment with US policies has structural reasons and will continue after Bush’s presidency.
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Few members at the Bucharest Summit acted to present the strongest military alliance in the world as “purposeful, tough and cohesive.” ++ “The Atlantic Caucus” is left to shoulder the biggest burden in Afghanistan and fill the “Eurogap” left by partners who fail to take the Taliban insurgency seriously. ++ Now NATO also suffers from a credibility gap due to members’ lack of resolve regarding
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Troops in Afghanistan amount to a mere 10% of the contingent needed. ++ Quarrelling over NATO policy issues is preventing gathering the necessary means to effectively tackle terrorism and the Taliban. ++ While French, German and Greek troops are comfortably in the North “where the main threat they face is boredom,” their politicians are willing to take charge, but not to shoulder the war’s
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The fate of NATO’s Afghanistan mission is strongly interlinked with developments in Pakistan. ++ Stability of both countries depends on an effective strategy to fight the Taliban/Al Qaeda in Pakistan’s tribal border areas. ++ Taliban’s capabilities against coalition forces in Afghanistan are a threat. ++ Joint US-Afghan-Pakistan military intelligence centers and counter-terrorism operations are
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The first territorial war of NATO history in Afghanistan will be the hot topic at the Bucharest Summit. ++ NATO’s credibility seems tied to success in Afghanistan, therefore NATO governments should reach a consensus on new criteria for measuring success and failure. ++ Democratization and stabilization can be difficult to achieve and should not be measured on an all-or-nothing basis.
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Iran and the US are not doomed to remain eternal enemies. ++ The two countries share profound strategic interests such as stabilizing Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; preventing the spread of Russian influence; and ensuring that Middle Eastern oil flow smoothly to Western markets. ++ A path towards comprehensive negotiations should be adopted as it is low cost and could yield extremely remarkable
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Taliban and al Qaeda members sheltered in Pakistan are serious threats to US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. ++ Frontier Corps need to be improved and the US should be spending more than $150 million a year on the eastern front. ++ The US should clearly support reconciliation, getting the military out of politics, a new tribal area policy, and above all, democracy in Pakistan.
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Most important task for the UN secretary general’s new special representative for Afghanistan, Kai Eide, is to form a relationship with President Karzai. ++ UN must be the primary coordinator for all organizations in Afghanistan. ++ Military and civilian efforts need to be coordinated, Afghanistan Compact needs to be supported, and Afghanistan’s neighbors need to help stabilize.
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With unilateral pull-outs of the Afghan mission threatening NATO’s existence, Europe’s security is also at risk. ++ EU members lack consensus both on matters of foreign policy and regarding a role for NATO in the future. ++ As a global security actor, the EU should bolster its military capabilities, drop its idealism, and commit itself to real objectives in Sudan, Afghanistan, and Kosovo.
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March 8, International Women’s Day, illustrates the existence of non-Western feminist movements. ++ The new government of Afghanistan noted the day to some degree. ++ Religion is a significant feminist issue, opening the door to new interpretations of Islam. ++ Low literacy rates further the vulnerability of Afghan women. ++ The Afghan government should make bold moves to allow women full
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As Afghanistan moves from a transitional to a long-term development framework, an outside authority is needed to direct reconstruction. ++ The Afghan government cannot manage this alone. ++ The country is slipping back into terrorism reminiscent of Taliban rule. ++ The European Union would be the ideal candidate to coordinate between the government, international organisations and the NGOs.
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Jan Techau and Alexander Skiba of the German Council on Foreign Relations criticize the German Government’s rejection of the US request for more German combat forces in south Afghanistan. There are at least three reasons for Germany to re-evaluate its current position: stabilizing Afghanistan is in Germany’s national interest; strategically it makes sense for Germany to carry more of
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An opinion poll commissioned by the BBC indicates that 54% of Afghans think things are going in the right direction, while 70% described their living conditions as good or very good. According to the poll of 1377 people from all 34 provinces of Afghanistan, 67% support or strongly support the presence of NATO forces.
Most striking was the apparent unpopularity of the Taliban – only 5% of
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General James Conway of the US Marine Corps advocates the re-deployment of a large contingent of his men into Afghanistan, which would be extracted from the Marine presence in Iraq’s Anbar province, writes Gordon Lubald for the Christian Science Monitor.
In the absence of prospective troops from other countries, Gen. Conway argues it is necessary to improve the standing of the United States in
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French President Nicolas Sarkozy has reached out to the United States and is willing to bring France back into NATO, an offer America should seize, writes Dr. Ronald Asmus from the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and member of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board.
In 1995 Presidents Chirac and Clinton came close to an agreement, but sudden political changes threw France back
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Norine MacDonald of the Senlis Council — a security, development and counternarcotics group – briefs the Canadian Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development on Canada’s faltering contributions to Afghan development. Based on studies conducted in Kandahar, MacDonald outlines the “chilling” conditions of everyday life within the southern Afgan province. Lack of
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Today’s security threats demand global military capability, argue Ivo Daalder of Brookings and James Goldgeier of George Washington University. International alliances should incorporate new partners that can share the increasing demand for troops and meet the new requirements for a secure global community. NATO’s membership should be opened up beyond the original cold war mandate prescribed by
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NATO troops should adopt three main policies in Afghanistan, says Rory Stewart. First, they should develop a more considerate approach towards tribal communities in order to distinguish between friends and “real” enemies; second, they should concentrate on highly visible infrastructure projects to regain the population’s trust; third, development projects need to be launched (e.g. from UN
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Talibanistan, the tribal region of Pakistan which forms the border with Afghanistan, is seen by Time Asia correspondent Aryn Baker as the breeding ground for a new generation of terrorists and a hideaway for al-Qaeda leaders. The “Talibanization” of the borderlands has renewed doubts about Pakistani President Musharraf’s willingness to track down jihadists. Furthermore, the loss of support from
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