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Baudouin Long: Iran’s nuclear ambition is not only a factor of concern for the Western powers but for its Arab neighbors as well. They have reacted to the Iranian threat by developing several strategies in compliance with the NPT. Nevertheless, they suffer from their disarray and should oppose a more united front to Iran.
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Saeb Sal Kasm: Successful resolution of the Iranian nuclear dilemma requires creative and skillful diplomatic engagement. Otherwise, the parties risk further isolation, politically charged rhetoric, and eventually escalation toward military confrontation.
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Antonio Buttitta: Iran is the only country in the Middle East that can not be challenged by Western powers without risking a severe unbalancing of global economies or an all out decent into war - a prospect that would be ultimately unsuccessful for all involved. Instead, rapid diplomacy must lead to effective negotiations, based on a new scheme.
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Memo 21: Amid growing fears of Turkey moving away from the West, atlantic-community.org presents the findings from its special analysis week on Turkey. Members agree that Turkey’s foreign policy should not be misinterpreted as a shift East and call upon the US and the EU to start embracing Turkey’s growing influence.
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Alex Jackson: Current fears that Turkey is moving away from its Euro-Atlantic orientation are misguided. Ankara is indeed strengthening ties with its Muslim neighbors but it is also improving relations with Russia and Armenia. The West should, instead, focus on the benefits that Turkey’s multilateral foreign policy can bring.
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Brian Katulis: Turkey and the US need to coordinate their efforts in South Asia, Iraq, Iran and the Arab-Israeli conflict, towards common goals. In order to make progress on his ambitious policy agenda for the Middle East, Obama needs Turkey. To this end, improving US- Turkish bilateral ties is a first crucial step.
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Gamze Avci: Turkey’s fatigue with the EU has accommodated the diversification of its foreign policy. The perceived uncertainty about the accession process has slowed down reforms and has reduced EU leverage over Ankara. But, at present the mainstay of Turkish foreign policy remains EU membership.
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Melissaratos/Slabbert: As global challenges become increasingly technocentric, a concerted campaign to usher the world into a new technological era is sorely needed. Thus, the US and other governments should invest in a global campaign for technological innovation.
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Andreas Michael Bock: Iran is legally entitled to posses nuclear WMD - not inspite, but because of the NPT. The international treaty claims to apply equally to all contracting parties, but numerous exceptions have been made in the past. Then why should the NPT apply to Iran?
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Laura Wicks: Sectarian tensions continue to threaten civil war with large Sunni and Shia Muslim populations throughout the Middle East, particularly in Iraq. The current war in Iraq will play a prominent role in determining the future of the Sunni-Shia conflict. The ethno-religious conflict will in turn determine the future of Middle Eastern relations and security.
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Jeffrey Mankoff: It is a priority of the USA to gain Russia’s support for a new round of UN sanctions against Iran. However, due to a number of economic, diplomatic, and strategic factors, it is very unlikely that Moscow will take meaningful steps against Tehran. Thus, the Obama Administration should circumvent Russia and find a way to solve the Iranian nuclear problem alone.
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Leon V. Sigal: The world needs to focus on first steps toward abolition, not the ultimate goal. Most importantly, before moving to Zero, the West has to achieve major efforts in its relations with North Korea and Iran.
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Editorial Team: Nuclear disarmament is back on the agenda in the international debate. Atlantic Community members are encouraged to join the conversation as we host a special Theme Week on “Global Zero.” We will present the results from your discussion at the Böll Foundation’s conference “A World Without Nuclear Weapons or Nuclear Anarchy?”
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Florian Broschk: While the rest of the world ponders the impact the unrest in Iran will have on foreign policy issues, there is a much greater struggle going on inside the country. Different factions are manoeuvring for control of Iran and there is little that the West can do to influence this power struggle.
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Abbas Daiyar: Ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran’s theocratic regime has attempted to legitimize the dictatorship through democratic instruments, but the most recent presidential elections proved to Iranians that real change can only be established through a revolutionary overthrow of the clerical regime.
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Editorial Team: Amid chaos in the streets of Tehran, uncertainty remains as to the legitimacy of the election results and the appropriate response by Western countries. Please weigh in on the situation in our poll.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: US leadership can respond to the more imminent challenge of Iranian nuclear ambitions and extend NATO’s Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Ukraine and Georgia. Here is a recommendation to President Obama.
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Parag Khanna: President Obama’s administration may need to look outside of its traditional set of allies in order to secure stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan and the surrounding regions. There will be a cost attached to this cooperation, but the cost of failure may be higher.
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Bidjan Nashat: The use of anti-Israeli, pan-Islamic, and anti-imperialist rhetoric has been a deliberate tool in the conduct of Iran’s post-revolutionary foreign policy.
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Editorial Team: The new Democrat administration and Europe’s positive welcome of President Obama promise to revitalize the transatlantic relationship. We are inviting you to tell us which three topics you think the US and Europe should prioritize. Your preferences will determine our focus in 2009.
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From the Editorial Team: During 2008 Afghanistan was among the most explosive political issues. The unstable state of the country will continue to affect the whole region. What are your recommendations for 2009? What is the most urgent action that needs to be taken in Afghanistan this year?
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Oliver Schmidt: In assessing whether Iran intends to build nuclear weapons, it can be concluded that whilst no evidence or ‘smoking gun’ for an Iranian nuclear program can be found, the available clues and arguments strongly suggest that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons option.
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Memo 9: Afghanistan needs a continued international commitment to ensure its security and assist in economic and social development. The US, EU and Germany must focus on training local authorities. Cooperating with Iran and the Taliban remains a point of debate.
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Simon K. Koschut: President-elect Obama faces a tough challenge once he takes office. The world is expecting change from America, but they shouldn’t hope for too much, too fast. Instead, in countries like Germany, the question needs to be “what can we do for the United States?” Likely topics of discussion will regard burden sharing in Afghanistan and possibly even Iraq.
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Abbas Daiyar: The Afghan Foreign Minister’s statement opposing talks with insurgents emphasizes existing divisions within government circles in Afghanistan and abroad. The US and NATO must win the war in Afghanistan. Involving regional countries like Russia, China and India may prevent history from repeating itself.
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Sepideh Parsa: The Islamic Republic is strangling the media landscape, crippling the democratic pillar of free speech. Censorship has given rise to the Iranian blogosphere. These blogs pave the way for democratic progress. The West should provide technological expertise to help Weblogistan flourish.
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David Neil Lebhar: Ahmed Rashid argues that the conflict in Afghanistan needs a regional solution, including US-Iranian cooperation. The German military must intensify operations in northern Afghanistan, and the government has to educate the public about the mission’s importance.
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Atlantik-Brücke’s Young Leaders: The Atlantic partners must jointly address the economic slowdown, competition over scarce resources and energy dependence. Moreover, the transatlantic relationship faces an immediate, critical test in Afghanistan. Success there is needed as a demonstration of our ability to effectively address common security threats.
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From the Editorial Team: In his nomination speech, the Democratic presidential candidate reiterates his commitment to direct diplomacy with Iran and his hawkish position on Pakistan. What do you make of Barack Obama’s security policy positions?
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: Iran’s nuclear strategy – one that allows it to buy time and improve its negotiating position – seems to be working. The US policy shift has come too late - Iran has already wrapped Germany, Russia and China around its little finger. The next US President will be faced with a tough choice.
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Philip Gordon: China does not want to jeopardize its energy deals with Tehran which are essential for its economic development. But this is a short-sighted perspective which overlooks the risks the Iranian nuclear program represents for China itself. It is time for China to think strategically about Iran.
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Sanam Vakil: Tehran’s factional disputes are rooted in the very character of the Iranian regime. They ensnare even its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But this can also mean that these figures’ political resilience in face of criticism can be underestimated.
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Daniel Möckli: Switzerland pursues an ambitious Middle East policy that differs from US and EU polices in major ways. This has given rise to controversies lately. There are good reasons for the Swiss to pursue a conflict resolution strategy based on mediation and dialog with Iran and militant Islamist organization
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Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: President Bush’s effort to unite the EU-3 behind an American proposal for harsher measures on Iran may be undermined by German domestic politics.
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Thomas Speckmann: By highlighting the following dilemma “the Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran”, Sarkozy signalled the return to a strategy of nuclear deterrence. Since the West’s most dreaded scenario is the nuclearization of the Middle East, calls to prevent Iran from acquiring the atomic bomb are becoming ever more frequent.
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Ryan R. Miller: When major powers meet in Shanghai on April 16th to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, Washington should work with European capitals and leave the door open to greater EU-Iranian energy trade as a potential reward for Iranian good behavior. For post-communist Central Europe, disproportionately exposed to Russia’s energy monopoly, such a strategy could kill two birds with one stone.
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Matt Dupuis: The idea of bringing the production and storage of nuclear fuel under international control is gaining support once again. The US should take the lead in creating a global fuel bank which would make it possible to test countries’ intentions while limiting their access to nuclear technology.
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Charles Kupchan and Ray Takeyh: Rather than continuing to pursue strategies which isolate and attempt to contain Iran, the US needs to follow the lead of its Arab Allies, practice diplomacy, and encourage regional integration.
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Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Christian E. Rieck: A further proliferation of nuclear technology among ambitious middle powers is inevitable. Even though such a cooperation between Iran and Venezuela seems far-fetched at the moment, deepening ties amongst mounting international pressure could create an attractive nuclear possibility for them.
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Ralf Fuecks: The United States must offer Iran direct negotiations regarding its nuclear program. There needs to be a higher level of political and energy cooperation.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Alexander Bernhard Bitter: Missile defense for Europe is coterminous with NATO’s mission. The European policy of waiting for a new US administration is flawed, as the financial burden of the endeavor could shift heavily toward Europe.
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Matt Dupuis: A nuclear-armed Iran could result in regional spillover in the form of nuclear proliferation throughout the Middle East. Negotiations, not deterrence, are the best way to avoid a nuclear free-for-all in the future.
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Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance.
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Christian E. Rieck: Western “rogue state” rhetoric is creating unlikely partnerships among the outcasts of the international community. The unity possible under the rogue state banner provides a welcome chance to mimic international legitimacy, and an opportunity to further erode democracy and consolidate domestic power—without Western admonitions to the contrary.
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Mark Brzezinski: The US has missed opportunities to make sensible progress in India and Iran. In both cases, the United States should be promoting constructive engagement rather than undercutting long-held nonproliferation doctrine.
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Robert M. Kimmitt:, U.S. Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, applauded Germany’s efforts at forging transatlantic economic bonds during a media breakfast hosted by the Atlantic Initiative in conjunction with the DGAP and Bohnen Kallmorgen & Partner. Kimmitt’s stop in Berlin was part of an extended trip through European capitals aimed at promoting common transatlantic policies towards financial and economic issues.
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Christian Rieck and Dustin Dehez: We argue that the growing public relationship between Iran and Venezuela is more a game of smoke and mirrors than a substantial threat. The US and EU must avoid rising to propaganda’s bait and continue dealing with Ahmadinejad and Chavez individually, bearing in mind that “if pushed too hard, even unlikely bedfellows can become a happy couple.”
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Tony Karon: The West should not be asking whether Tehran will build nuclear weapons in the future, but rather how the regime can be persuaded that it doesn’t need them.
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Joerg Wolf: Noting the high stakes for the continent and its limited capabilities, European analysts suggest that Europe should pursue different policies than the US or make support dependent on more involvement in the decision-making process.
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Joerg Wolf: We asked European policy experts for their opinions on proposed ways forward in Iraq. Respondents from ten different countries provided some surprising results.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: We need a new philosophy of deterrence against Iran. A tough containment policy, including Russia, and strong defense of Israel could bring about a changed security architecture in the Middle East that might finally include Tehran.
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Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen: the only news from the White House and Petraeus findings is that any decision on American troop withdrawal is postponed: President Bush is betting it all on positive trends in Iraq. Should the situation improve, Germany too will have to do its part.
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Retired General James Jones: Positive trends on the ground could enable a shift in responsibility from Coalition forces to the Iraqi security forces.
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The Atlantic Community Editorial Team: presents a comparative analysis of the most promising plans from policy makers and think tanks across the US. See all the strategies here, or download and print out a PDF with the full matrix of options.
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Irem Köker: I identify the issues to watch for between Turkey and the United States. Although the majority party remains in power, new developments on the Kurds, the Armenian genocide question and Turkey’s energy deal with Iran could have lasting consequences.
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Kenneth Ballen: Almost 70% of Iranians favor normal relations with the United States. With all options against Iran still on the table, the West should pay more attention to a population whose majority supports democracy.
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Dirk Niebel: Britain, France and Germany should get tough on Tehran through European economic pressure. Nuclear progress has already emboldened the government, and the West must take decisive action before it is too late.
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Shlomo Ben-Ami: I analyze the consequences of US grand strategy in the Middle East. The regional balance of power has been so thoroughly altered that an Arab-Israeli settlement now looks increasingly possible.
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Maximilian Terhalle: I recommend that the United States offer Iran a fair deal in order to secure American interests in the Gulf region. The US needs to consider Iran’s political ambitions if it hopes to make headway with Tehran, and the international community should get involved in negotiating a mutually beneficial agreement.
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Eberhard Sandschneider: The conference from the German Marshall Fund closes a strategic gap between Davos and Munich. The transatlantic discussion forum should improve relations between Europe and the United States.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe and Germany need missile defense against the threat from Iran. Europe has long neglected the new strategic threats arising from missile proliferation.
This is the first of a two-part series from the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board Member.
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Global Must Read Articles
“Sanctions are a sign of a failed policy.” ++ The Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, currently under consideration in the United States Congress, targets Iran’s civilian economy and will likely accomplish little in reshaping Iran’s behavior. ++ Sanctions do have their place, but only within a context of a broader policy of engagement and pressure. ++ Continuing to rely on
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The Obama administration is currently working on new UN sanctions designed to cut off funding to Iranian nuclear and missile activities, as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s vast network of companies. ++ Chinese participation is a crucial component to any sanctions regime, yet so far, US overtures to Beijing to sign onto its sanctions campaign have been met with little success. ++
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Ahmadinejad’s regime is unlikely to back down from its nuclear ambitions. ++ The Obama administration is taking steps to put pressure on Iran by imposing sanctions through the Treasury Dept., the State Dept., and Congress. ++ “France, among other European governments, has been talking tough about the need for sanctions that bite; a U.S.-backed gasoline embargo would put that resolve
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It is nearly impossible to predict what the future will hold for Iranian politics. Nevertheless, thinking through various conceivable scenarios does provide decision-makers with important cues as to possible future developments. Two variables are important in any assessment of plausible political developments in Iran: the strength of the regime and the potential for external conflicts, in
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Iran’s well known nuclear ambitions prove American diplomatic engagement wrong. ++ There is a clear need for reconciliation between both realist and idealist approaches. ++ A balance can be reached by supporting the Green Revolution to ensure a democratically appeased regime on the one hand and by expressing solidarity instead of military commitment on the other hand. ++ Promoting ways to
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The United States boosts missile defence in Gulf States, sweeping away Obama’s renewed strategy towards Iran. ++ Washington’s foreign policy goes back to basics: military containment. ++ This move is also meant to deter Israel from taking any pre-emptive action. ++ Confidence is the final expected result, but it may not have the awaited outcome, for Iran is both a strong regional
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As the world watches to see how the political crisis in Iran will play out, its neighbors in the have been silent on the matter. ++ “From the prism of Arab Gulf interests, there is no need to pick a side in this fight, especially when it is unclear who will win and whether it will make a difference.” ++ Arab states need to be more pro-active in shaping a stable outcome for Iran and its subsequent
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The wait and see attitude of Europe and the US towards the Iranian revolt is morally unacceptable. ++ Ashton has yet to make a statement and Obama only last week called on the Iranian leadership to stop violating human rights. ++ Ashton’s lack of action based on a fear for harming business interests and Obama’s unsuccessful policy of engagement need to be reconsidered at this crucial phase of the
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Washington’s containment policy towards Iran is based on outdated Cold War logic. ++ The doctrine of mutually assured destruction does not work as even the most ardent hawks have doubts about US resolve to obliterate Iran in case of a nuclear attack. ++ Although many question whether Ahmadinejad would use a nuclear weapon, “no-one knows whose finger is on Iran’s nuclear trigger.” ++ Relying on
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Ahmadinejad and Khamenei made a major misjudgement in assuming they would succeed in suppressing their people, if they would beat down hard enough. ++ The green movement has only become stronger over the past six months, with protesters even stamping on photos of the supreme leader. ++ Now it is up to Obama and western governments to start paying more attention to Iran’s green movement - whose
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Israel’s chief spy, Meir Dagan, has systematically reoriented the Mossad to focus on what he considers the greatest threat to the country: Iran. ++ Although Israel’s stance has caused no public rift with the US yet, if it were to attack Tehran unilaterally, that might well invite Iranian retaliation against US forces in the Middle East. ++ Dagan has succeeded in making the Mossad more aggressive,
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Although Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tries to rest the blame of the post-election domestic unrest on foreign powers, those protesting are not directing their chants at outsiders but at their own government. ++ Iran’s youth disillusionment with the regime can no longer be denied, with voices calling for political and social reform becoming louder. ++ Ahmadinjead and his coterie of hardliners are aware
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Apart from Pakistan, President Obama did not talk about the role of any other stakeholders in the region in his speech. ++ It was an unwise decision not to mention Iran, considering the role it has to play in tackling regional drug traffic. ++ Afghanistan’s narco-economy should be considered as important a problem as terrorism. ++ With the majority of the Afghan drug trade passing through Iran, a
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Turkey’s motives are being questioned within the European Union over its growing connections with Iran. ++ Some argue that Ankara could further the Union’s policies concerning Iran’s nuclear capabilities, while others contend that Western efforts will be frustrated by “lessening that country’s sense of isolation.” ++ The West risks ruining its own relationship with Turkey over short-term
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The Obama administration needs to balance its approach towards Iran, by taking up its moral responsibilities. ++ Whilst the West has been placing the nuclear issue above all other concerns, Tehran has been establishing an “infrastructure for repression.” ++ Ahmadinejad only sporadically agrees to discuss the nuclear issue, to shift the attention from his regimes’ human rights abuses. ++ The US
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Iraq’s approach of the French nuclear industry for help with the reconstruction of a reactor and its opening of discussions with the IAEA reveal the West’s double standards for Iran and Iraq. ++ In comparison with the West’s close monitoring of Iran’s every move, Iraq’s aspirations have provoked very little reaction. ++ This is remarkable as Security Council Resolution 707 forbids Iraq from
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Nuclear talks with Iran have progressed slowly but show that engagement is the best strategy. ++ Although Iran’s acquisition of advanced nuclear technology is inevitable, talks can assure that Iran’s program is brought under IAEA supervision. ++ Although “engagement may seem to play to the hand of Islamist foes in the short term, in the long run it guarantees the de-radicalisation of Islamist
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It seems, Iran has reached the limits of its power. ++ In order to regain control over key institutions following the election disturbances, Ali Khamenei has lost popular support and legitimacy. ++ “To save his regime he has sacrificed its founding ideals, and in the process he has transformed Iran into yet another typical military dictatorship with a theocratic veneer.” ++ Although, it is not
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The Obama administration’s middle east policy is largely unsuccessful due to its containment policy towards Iran. ++ The „US’ moves meant to contain the power of Iran, are the main stumbling block on the path to a US-brokered two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.“ ++ In order to reach sustainable peace in the greater middle east, and particularly in Israel and
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Although “the protesters have been routed from the streets of Tehran, the political turmoil in Iran continues unabated behind the scenes.” ++ The leaders authorities are challenged by a group of religious and secular elites. ++ It is doubtful that the regime will respond meaningfully to the Obama administration’s deadline to discuss the nuclear issue. ++ The biggest challenge for Washington is of
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At present, the power struggle in Kabul is reaching its apex. ++ After years of US hegemony, now, Russia, Iran and China push for influence in Afghanistan. ++ Both, Kabul and Washington depend on Moscow’s benevolence in terms of arms trade and NATO deployment. ++ Conversely, Iran aims to curb the US military threat. ++ “As for China…there are two imperatives: controlling a
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“The shame trials in Iran mask an insecure regime.” ++ Tehran’s actions must not be confused with an expression of Iran’s strength and confidence. ++ They are the leadership’s last opportunity to shift away the focus of the regime’s lack of legitimacy and authority by linking the domestic opposition to western interests. ++ But the Iranian people know their government and “they certainly
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The Iranian regime’s legitimacy has been “irretrievably undone” by the summer’s election controversy. ++ “The current situation offers parallels with the political unrest leading up to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.” ++ Just as Carter’s election was seen as a threat to the monarchy’s external legitimacy, Obama’s non-confrontational approach makes it hard for this regime to play the defender of
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President Obama’s engagement with US’ adversaries is failing. ++ North Korea and Iran responded to America’s politics of dialogue by testing nuclear weapons and commencing nuclear enrichment. ++ “Obama’s diplomatic hand has been extended for a while now…fists remain clenched.” ++ These oppressive regimes are internally too preoccupied to respond to US rapprochement.
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Obama should continue to make clear that the United States stands with those seeking peaceful and democratic reform in Iran. ++ Although street demonstrations are fewer, Iran’s political crisis appears to be intensifying. ++ “Several of the Islamic Republic’s most senior leaders openly disputed the attempt by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, to end debate about last month’s
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Opponents of missile defense argue unpersuasively that “there is no near-term, long-range Iranian missile threat and the proposed US system could not defeat such a threat anyway.” ++ Yet Iran continues to buy crucial materials and make progress in their missile tests. ++ The US plan includes state-of-the-art radar and interceptors, and there is no reason to believe they would not work
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While Russia and the US agree on nonproliferation, global proliferation rises. ++ China and Israel modernize their arsenal; developments in North Korea and Iran endanger world stability. ++ Iran’s nuclear ambitions risk a domino effect with countries at the nuclear doorstep, such as Egypt, Turkey, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. ++ They must either invest in security ties with the US and missile defense
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Biden’s words giving Israel the green light for a military strike should Iran obtain nuclear capabilities caused public discomfort. ++ Yet anything less would be irresponsible: Jewish history taught Israel it cannot wait for the worst case scenario - realization of Ahmadinejad’s threat of a nuclear attack. ++ The West must give the checks and balances of Israeli democracy the respect they deserve
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Recent events in Iran and China have demonstrated the impressive power
of the internet. Iranians used web communication technologies like Twitter to
spread reports and images of their protests worldwide, despite attempts at
government censorship. In China a massive online resistance was formed against
new filter software to be placed in all computers, one which would protect
children form
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President Obama’s visit to Moscow is supposed to foster “a more substantive relationship with Russia” - particularly on Iran’s atomic ambitions, Afghanistan and a replacement arms treaty - but Russia hardly looks “inclined to forge a partnership, except on its own terms.” ++ The US must remember its own aims - to expand freedom in Eurasia - and not pander to Putin.
++ President Obama’s
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The Obama Administration should use the upheaval in Iran to “creep away from the corner into which it has painted itself in the Arab-Israeli peace process” - that is, insisting on a total “freeze” in Israeli settlements in the West Bank and even
East Jerusalem. ++ This approach of “raising the stakes” even though Israel is making an effort is flawed because it is politically unnecessary. ++
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The only way to deal with Iran’s theocratic dictatorship is investing in renewable energy. ++ US President Barack Obama should enhance his efforts to end America’s reliance from Iranian fuel. ++ It is “the one thing we could do without firing a shot.” ++ Western economic sanctions would hit Tehran harder, if oil prices were low. ++ Iranian leaders would have to encourage their people to innovate
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Obama’s caution vis-à-vis Iran betrays the promises he made in Berlin during his election campaign. ++ The excuse that his only choice is between feeding views that America is “meddling” or virtual silence is unfounded. ++ He should seek a global statement which condemns the violence and supports the protesters, uniting the diverse nations already speaking out. ++ Obama, you spoke of
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As the casualties from the protests in Iran begin to mount, critical voices have accused US President Barack Obama of being too soft and indifferent towards Tehran. ++ In spite of his tone getting tougher in regards to the escalating violence on Tehran’s streets, “Obama keeps avoiding open confrontation with Iran’s potentates.” ++ Tehran has a tendency to use any US statements against protesters.
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“President Obama took office loudly promising to be the anti-George W. Bush of foreign policy,” but what he has received instead is “an education in the reality of global rogues, and how he responds has become a major test of his Presidency.” ++ The US is currently tracking a North Korean ship with suspected weapons towards Burma - will Mr Obama act to inspect the ship even though Pyongyang has
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There are four potential scenarios that could come out of the Iranian crisis. ++ A revolution is unlikely: neither side favors a coup. ++ The regime must avoid a Tiananmen-like crackdown as that would ruin its legitimacy. ++ If the opposition remains strong, the status quo will be untenable and the election results must be re-evaluated. ++ Ayatollah Khamenai will be hoping for the “Zimbabwe
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Returned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has actually staged a creeping, silent coup, wresting control of Iran from the clerics and installing his military cohorts in their place. ++ Supreme Leader Khamenei shows strong support for the regime because he and the President - a former soldier - are dependent one each other to retain power. ++ Even the events after the election result seem
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The protests in Teheran following the re-election of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are the broadest since the 1979 revolution and include disaffected members of the revolutionary elite. ++ The leadership faces a crisis of authority. ++ The arrest of 110 reformist politicians has given “further credence to suggestions that more is afoot than simple election manipulation,” and that the
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Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is concerned about US President Obama’s lack of attachment to Israel. ++ “Obama doesn’t fit in the pattern of former US presidents.” ++ “The thrust of his Middle East policy - reconciling the US with the Arab and Muslim world - clashes with Netanyahu’s strategy.” ++ Obama sees a vital link between an Israeli-Palestinian peace and the containment of the Iranian
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Iranian religious leaders have suppressed efforts by any moderates to gain political power - culling all but four of the original 475 Presidential candidates for the elections. ++ President Ahmadinejad is favored to retain office, meaning social change in Iran is unlikely, even though “the majority of Iranians do not desire to live in a country that is regarded as an international pariah.” ++ But
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Israel is determined to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb, even with military strike. ++ Such an act of preventive aggression would have disastrous consequences: it would end all Iranian hesitations to build a bomb; the Middle East would be in an uproar, with popular discontent also targeting the USA, ending Obama’s attempt at easing relations; and Israel’s popular support in the West would be
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If the US and Europe cannot peacefully convince Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons, Israel may consider using force - a move that could trigger a war worse than that in Iraq and make or break both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership and that of Barak Obama’s. ++ For the Israelis, Iran has become an unrivalled threat. ++ “Never before have the Israelis had to confront a rabidly
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As the US retreats from the Middle East, Iran has a sophisticated, multi-level strategy to step in and take control of the region. ++ Iran-controlled groups and “front” companies have been caught actively destabilising six nations - all of whom are experiencing economic and/or political crises and are close allies of the US. ++ Lebanon could succumb first as Iran is spending “massive amounts of
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Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may have softened his stance on Israel after saying his country would recognize the State of Israel - if Palestine signed a two-state peace deal. ++ The Obama Administration has extended an olive branch and the jailing of an Iranian-American journalist on spy charges last week may have been a maneuver by the regime to manufacture a crisis in order to test
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US foreign policy shows a desire to critique Israel, exemplified by Clinton’s rebuke of Israel’s reluctance to move on the peace efforts. ++ This development will benefit both states: it shows a new assessment of US interests and an awareness that Israel’s interests have been hurt, not helped, by an uncritical US approach. ++ Pushing for new openings with regards to a Palestinian unity
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Challenges facing the world offer President Obama a “moment of unique opportunity”. ++ Negotiations are being held with a number of countries on various strategic and political issues. ++ Action is required following this “concert diplomacy and this will only result out of shared convictions”. ++ Diplomatic processes with North Korea and Iran are ongoing, and their successful outcome will be
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Journalists can become embroiled in geopolitical conflict not of their own doing. ++ Iran
should overturn the conviction of Iranian-American journalist Roxana Saberi if they “wish to earn the respect President Obama has accorded them in recent overtures”. ++ President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for Saberi to be able to defend herself properly on appeal. ++ Should Saberi not be released, it
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Ahead of US Middle East envoy George Mitchell’s visit to Israel, the issue of continuing Iranian uranium enrichment looms large. ++ Israelis want to see deadlines and performance based-milestones in place. ++ This issue is “emboldening this region’s extremists and cowing its moderates,” reducing the prospect for any successful resolution on matters relating to Palestine. ++ To improve the chances
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President Ahmadinejad saying that Iran “welcomes a hand extended to it should it really and truly be based on honesty, justice and respect” is a significant response to recent US overtures. ++ Iran has announced that its nuclear productive capacity had increased, and talks to persuade Iran to suspend its nuclear program are ongoing. ++ Iran sees its nuclear program as a vital sign of its
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The period between April 4-8 will be characterized by tension given North Korea’s plans to launch a rocket and the suspicion that it might be a long range missile. ++ The US spoke of a defensive response if the rocket heads towards the US. ++ Yesterday’s meeting between President Obama and Hu Jintao could be crucial given China’s role as North Korea’s main oil supplier.
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The approaching G20 will also be the first meeting between President Medvedev and President Obama. ++ Recently, the US has shown increased willingness to reconstruct their relations with the Kremlin whose cooperation is much needed on the Afghan and Iraqi Dossiers. ++ Yet, the US ought to move with care; Russia is not only eager to maintain influence in its “near abroad,” in addition “Moscow also
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The Arab League’s annual meeting could mark the beginning of a new chapter in Arab unity as the Iranian threat brings Arab states closer. ++ But regional politics might point in a different direction as a “Cold War” is being waged: the “muddled and divided Arab response to the Israeli assault on Gaza” made this a profound reality. ++ Those seeing Doha as a potential
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Obama used television to address the people and government of Iran. ++ The President invited Iran into the “community of nations” but reminded them that rights come with responsibilities. ++ Iran replied by saying that actions speak louder than words. ++ Given a tempestuous bilateral relation such words are unlikely to make a breakthrough. ++ Obama can foster some diplomatic ties by
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It is silly to think that Mr Ahmadinejad is not aware of the enormity of reprisals to which he would be exposed should he attack Israel. ++ Thus, it is by no means excludable that the sole reason behind Iran’s insistence to continue its nuclear program is to be regarded as an equal partner. ++ After all, several countries such as France or Israel went through the same logic. ++ Yet, reproducing
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The upcoming Arab summit is causing a lot of diplomatic activity in the Middle East. ++ Three Gulf states have warned Qatar that if Iran attends the meeting their representation will weaken, which marks a shift from the usual “fearful” attitudes towards Iran. ++ The Arab world is holding its breath as the upcoming presidential election in Iran creates hope for reform. ++ Israel is
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Changing tone does not suffice, the US ought to consider Iran as a truly equal partner to reset the relationship with Tehran: “In Iran there is no willingness to co-operate with the US without being paid back,” as happened in the past. ++ Mr Biden’s message in Munich has not been welcomed on the Iranian side and was perceived in other words, as a continuation of Bush’s carrot and stick approach.
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Obama decided to send two high level US officials to visit Syria and participate in “preliminary conversations.” ++ The decision is a complete shift from the Bush attitude. ++ It comes as a pleasant surprise to those who believe that the US should support Syria-Israel talks and use it as a stabilizer in the region, luring Syria away from Iran and into American arms. ++ Syria is also
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The small glimpse of hope of potential Russian-US cooperation on curtailing Iran’s nuclear plans disappeared after an unsuccessful meeting between Russia and the US. ++ Obama stated that Russia would not determine America’s missile defense plans. ++ Although a setback, the statement is not without purpose; if not said Russia would have achieved its aim of creating a wedge between
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President Obama must decide whether to wait until after the upcoming elections before engaging in dialogue with Iran. ++ Further development of the Iranian nuclear program may speed up talks. ++ Constant and continual dialogue may be the best step forward for both parties. ++ In order to achieve long term success, a communication channel needs to be established to exchange confidential
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In his State
of The Union Address
in January 2002, George W. Bush warned us of the infamous “Axis of
Evil.” Iran, North Korea and Iraq were accused of harboring
terrorists, building weapons of mass destruction and threatening world peace.
Seven years later, President Obama is confronted with another similarly grave
“Axis.” This time, however, it is not linked to terrorism or weapons
of
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The reported plight of Jews in Iran has provoked consternation amongst academics in this area.++ Comparisons with totalitarian regimes such as that of Nazi Germany are not accurate.++ Today’s Iran is an open society with access to international news, and the upcoming elections will be fair and open.++ Life for Jews in Iran may be more difficult than that of Muslims, but society is relatively
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Albeit at a slow pace, Iran is proceeding with its uranium enrichment program. ++ Unless the West completely reconsiders its diplomacy tactic vis à vis Iran, it is difficult to imagine a changed scenario: “years have been lost to ineffective approaches.” ++ Obama’s initiative to have direct negotiations with Tehran should have been opted for earlier. ++ An alluring option could be
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The IAEA caused fury when it revealed that it had underestimated the percentage of enriched uranium in Iran. ++ Exaggerated Western media reports coupled with alarming comments about Iran’s closeness to the bomb from “anonymous” IAEA officials presented a dire situation. ++ While the report seems to threaten Obama’s new policy of gradual engagement, the Western media
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There are many paradoxes that characterize Iran, and here comes another one. ++ The Iranian-Jewish community lives in peace in Iran and Iranian tolerance towards the community reveals a lot about “its sophistication and culture.” ++ The community keeps in touch with its Jewish roots but at the same time criticizes Israeli atrocities — such as Gaza — and complains about the
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Whilst he does not possess absolute authority, on Iran’s political stage nothing can be done without the green light of Ayatollah Khamenei: “he can no more be bypassed than the Great Recession.” ++ The relevance for the US is that dealing with Tehran begins with dealing with this “supreme leader.” ++ Obama must promise Khamenei that the US has discarded its goal of regime change, his worst
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From the Alborz Mountains one catches sight of Tehran, a world apart in terms of political and religious liberties. ++ In the mountains “everything” is permitted, and several young people flee there to escape the physical and mental repression of the metropolis. ++ Change will eventually spill over into the entire country; it is just a matter of time. ++ The West has a part to play to
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When the Iranian Revolution exploded 30 years ago the world entered a state of shock. ++ Was it really that unpredictable? ++ Behind the superficial tranquility, popular discontent deriving from corruption and despotism of the Shah regime was prominent. ++ Yet, blinded by its self interest, the West failed to see it coming. ++ There is a terrifying parallel between pre-revolutionary Iran and
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The success of the Iraqi election shot down Washington’s contention that democracy in Iraq was a fantasy and provided stark contrast to the post-Saddam days when “the only communal or social ties […] were those of ethnicity and sect.” ++ In contrast to the last 6 years, Iraq now has a free press, political competition and secular politics which favor the US and leave Iran standing
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The Munich Security Conference revealed to Germany the price it will have to pay if it wants to be America’s dear friend: increased troop deployment in Afghanistan and a preparedness to stand by the US if Iran remains uncooperative. ++ But while the US is extending the hand of cooperation to Germany, the latter seems nostalgic for the “era before the fall of the Berlin Wall.”
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Iran celebrated the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Republic by launching a satellite (Omid) into space. ++ While the world over criticized this move, China’s awkward silence has been stirring suspicion. ++ Let’s not forget that Iran participated in the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization and that the Chinese Great Wall Industry Corp has been punished by the US for selling
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The upcoming Iranian election is a critical one: the big question is whether the new president will seek to normalize relations with the West. ++ The former reformist President Khatami disappointed reform aspirations and the current president is criticized for his economic policy but his popularity is thriving. ++ America should avoid aggressive confrontation. ++ “Given that Ahmadinejad
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The Munich Conference on Security Policy needs renewal. ++ In 2007 Putin declared the end of unipolarity here. ++ This year NATO seeks discreet dialog with Russia, but the focus will be on the seating of US and Iranian delegations. ++ The first contact between them for three decades may take place over dinner. ++ “You only see old men there,” says a female NATO diplomat. ++ The conference
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There is much more to the Middle East than Iraq, and US foreign policy must quickly widen its foreign policy focus in the region. A successful Middle East policy strategy must simultaneously address Iraq, Iran, Syria, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as renew diplomacy throughout the region. The Obama administration is advised to act immediately, appointing special envoys and beginning a
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Improving relations with Iran might not be as smooth as expected for Obama. ++ Under Russia’s new security strategy, to be adopted end of February, Russia is on the way to making Iran its new strategic partner. ++ An increase in the number of nuclear engineers being sent to Tehran to work with Iranians is one of several indicators of the rapprochement. ++ This may well remove any incentive for
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The success of the election in Iraq last Saturday rewards American efforts. ++ But it also weakens “Tehran’s hand” in Iraq as voter turnout was composed of a healthy mixture of Shiite and Sunni Iraqis, making way for the possibility of creating a balanced Iraqi Parliament and creating hope that Shiites will start looking to Baghdad rather than Tehran for political cues. ++
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Under Pres. Bush non proliferation efforts suffered a devastating blow: he did after all exit the ABM, ignored the NPT and saw the whole issue as anachronistic. ++ The result has been nuclear testing from North Korea and further proliferation in Iran. ++ The new President seems determined to restore non proliferation to its rightful place and has so far acted on his words. ++ But, for this
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It is crucial that Obama stays true to his promise of a fresh approach towards Iran, as the country wields significant influence over the wider Middle East region. ++ Persuading Iran to end its uranium enrichment program through dialog should begin as soon as possible. ++ Some important foundations for transparent democracy are in place, despite the country’s theocratic rule: the sizable body
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Although TV makes little positive contribution to anything, the BBC’s Persian TV channel, which aims to provide Iranian viewers with objective international news, deserves nothing but praise. ++ Running the channel is not easy, given the obstacles posed domestically both from the Iranian government and from myths of manipulation by the British government. ++ If the channel runs
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The Great Depression hindered the democratic progress; the current crisis could advance it. ++ Authoritarian countries like China, Russia, Venezuela and Iran will suffer more than democratic competitors. ++ Political legitimacy based on “delivering the economic goods” is weaker than one based on political freedom and the capacity to change governments without changing regime. ++ Democracies may
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The Middle East has been revamped since 2001. ++ Iraq has been transformed from an enemy to a friend; “from a brutal dictatorship to a multi-religious, multi-ethnic constitutional democracy” and can no longer pursue its nuclear arms race with Iran. ++ The Lebanese are free from the yoke of Syrian oppression and now enjoy the fruits of the Cedar Revolution. ++ Challenges still exist,
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Yesterday, German entrepreneurs met to discuss how to intensify business with Iran. ++ Bank Melli’s connection to Tehran’s nuclear program has given the EU reason to freeze assets of Iran’s largest bank, but Germany refuses to go “beyond the relatively soft UN trade restrictions.” ++ In view of rising exports, Germany has become the largest European exporter to Iran.
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Instead of focusing on an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement, Obama should invest in Israeli-Syrian negotiations. ++ Talks between Syria and Israel will focus on “withdrawal, peace, security and water - and the gaps are clear and ready to be bridged.” ++ Cementing such a deal would restructure the whole region in favor of US interests, giving Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran less options.
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President-elect Obama has repeatedly stated that he is willing to open talks with Tehran. ++ Obama will continue to contain Iran through multilateral mechanisms as well as greater coordination with Arab allies, should Tehran decide to reject US overtures. ++ There are three options in dealing with Iran. ++ Obama could limit Iran’s engagement to issues of common interest, start a
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Obama is going to have a very hard time fulfilling his campaign promises. ++ The heavy financial burden of the market bailout will slow his progress, especially since his tax policy proposals don’t seem to even cover his planned health-care reforms. ++ Obama’s preference for negotiation and economic sanctions might not get results with Iran and N. Korea and Israel’s upcoming
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Seven years after the advent of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban, al- Qaeda and various insurgents have regained strength particularly on Afghan and Pakistani soil. The fight for
security in the Middle East has spiralled downward as the Taliban have “established a new “safe haven” in Pakistan. Serious efforts to build a transparent, secure Afghan state with an intact justice system will
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President Bush will take a first step toward restoring diplomatic relations with Iran by establishing a diplomatic office. ++ The US understands that going to war with Iran would be fatal. ++ Unlike the US, “Iran never tried to overthrow a US government. Iran never invaded America’s neighbors. Iran never stationed aircraft carriers off the US coast.” ++ Dialogue will change the
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By the end of this year the UN mandate allowing US troops to operate in Iraq will expire. ++ Both countries have agreed to a US withdrawal and G. W. Bush has announced that troops will leave by 2011, “leaving only military trainers and air traffic controllers behind.” ++ The US should ask for an extension of its mandate and American troops should keep operating until a final agreement
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Obama must fulfill his promises of withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan and those of diplomacy with Iran. ++ He must close Guantánamo and declare the war on terror is over, realizing that terrorism is a technique, not an ideology. ++ Talks, not air strikes, should take place in Afghanistan. ++ Obama’s plan for “residual forces” in Iraq should be abandoned for a total
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The dramatic fall in oil prices could be the key to Iranian willingness to negotiate about their nuclear program. ++ Despite economic sanctions, Iran has managed to compensate for this financial hindrance via high oil prices, but current trends will intensify sanctions. ++ “30 percent inflation and 11 percent unemployment” will contribute to the oil price crisis – threatening
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US interests, and its allies, were dealt a severe blow when US commandos attacked an alleged Al Qaeda operative in Syria, killing seven civilians. ++ The risks of such an attack include “sabotaging Israeli-Syrian peace talks, reversing the trend of Syrian cooperation in Iraq and Lebanon, and playing into the hands of Iran,” which undoubtedly outweigh any “fleeting tactical
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Aside from the mystical fluke that Barack Obama’s name fulfils a Shiite Muslim prophesy of the “End of Times,” his proposed talks with Iran are also seen by many there “as a sign that the US is ready to admit defeat.” ++ Khomeinist officials prefer Obama especially because Biden supported their revolution and has voted against sanctioning Iran. ++ Obama’s
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The financial crisis has dominated the US election campaign, marginalizing foreign policy. ++ But it is foreign relations, and especially ties with Iran, that will be at the top of the next president’s agenda. ++ This is not only about Iran’s nuclear capacity; stability of Iraq and Afghanistan, peace in Lebanon and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are all inconceivable without
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With the status-of-forces agreement at an impasse, policy makers are unnerved by the ominous signs in Iraq. ++ If an agreement is not reached by December 31, US troops will have to return to their bases; “Without legal authority to operate, we do not operate.” ++ Recent gains in Iraq were predicated on US security guarantees - without them, “tensions are returning with a vengeance.” ++ Kurds,
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It is clear that it was the free-market fundamentalism and reckless stewardship of the US government that led to the current financial crisis. ++ The US will pay a high price for its sins. ++ The bailout, which is likely to end up costing more than the Iraq war, will not only erode US financial hegemony, but undermine its geopolitical domination as well. ++ Financial troubles will prompt American
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In addition to the development of the Iranian nuclear program and the economy, the choice of the next Iranian president will be determined by this year’s US presidential election. ++ Iranians are afraid of an American or Israeli military strike. ++ Knowing that McCain endorses military options, Iranians might tend to reelect Ahmadinejad in the case that McCain becomes the next president. ++
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Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s hand.” ++ Russia undermined US efforts to impose new sanctions against Tehran during the Security Council’s meeting last month. ++ The fact
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Iran is at most four years away from its nuclear goals - diplomacy is needed. ++ Russia’s offer to provide Iran with enriched nuclear material and US proposals for direct talks in return for the abandonment of nuclear intentions have been turned down. ++ The disapproval of further offers might result in the total isolation of Iran. ++ Using military force is only credible if Iran “can
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On Israel’s 60th anniversary and the Islamic revolution’s 30th, both countries are actually more similar than one may think. ++ Israel fears a loss of power from shifting demographics, and similarly Iranian conservatives fear losing power to supporters of former president Mohammad Khatami. ++ Both countries also feel isolated: Israel, a Jewish state in an Arab region, and Iran, a Shiite state
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Osama Bin Laden called Iraq the “central front” in his fight against the US - he was right. ++ Obama/Biden only focus on the past; they still think invading Iraq was a mistake, a distraction from Afghanistan. ++ Their obsession misses the point: “The essence of being a good commander in chief is appreciating the connections among these theaters.” ++ FDR fought the Nazi’s before assailing Japan,
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A petro-emboldened Russia is becoming resurgent in the Middle East. ++ With US power waning, Russia is seeking to fill the vacuum. ++ And they’re being well-received, as “autocratic and wealth-loving Russians” have more in common with the conservative majority of the region than “the US, with its pop culture and liberal democracy.” ++ Russia’s desire for a bloc
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Ban Ki-moon lauded Tehran’s mediating role in the Caucasus, which surely is music to the ears’ of Iran’s president. ++ Ahmadinejad adopted the language of post-hegemony and portrayed Iran as the leader of a new global alliance for peace and, thereby, as an alternative to the US. ++ Some developing countries’ diplomats appreciate Tehran’s criticism of NATO’s role in Georgia and Afghanistan. ++ The
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Even if Iran is currently racing toward accumulating enough uranium for a bomb, the financial crisis has reduced the sense of urgency in the US. ++ The UN Security Council and Germany will meet this week, but it’s unlikely that they will agree on any effective sanctions such as an arms embargo. ++ Only symbolic actions to further Iran’s diplomatic isolation are realistic. ++ Of course, the
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India and the US are celebrating their new nuclear deal this week. ++ Critics fear an unraveling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ Notwithstanding, India will be one of the great world powers and there is an unfortunate, yet undeniable link between power and nuclear weapons. ++ Although it may be hypocritical to permit India and sanction Iran, India is a status quo power and a settled
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The EU’s plan to reward Syria with an “Association Agreement” is worrisome for several reasons. ++ Damascus not only sponsors Hezbollah and Hamas, it also follows Iran’s approach to nuclear weapons in spite of its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ “European leaders should cease all further action toward an Association Agreement.” ++ If the EU ignores the lesson of inaction,
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US sanctions on Iran have caused an influx of Iranian trade with nearby Dubai. ++ Visits to the UAE by US officials have resulted in drastically fewer business licenses for Iranians there. ++ This policy has hurt many Iranians who are at odds with their government; “it is affecting only the people, not the government sector.” ++ US officials hope Iranians will place the blame on their own
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Israel is known for not tolerating a deadly threat, and so it is only a matter of time before it strikes Iran. ++ The international community failed to pressure Iran, as it did not block the Strait of Hormuz thereby harming Iran’s oil-based economy. ++ This option would have had a negative impact on the oil market in the short run, but could have averted a new war. ++ The outcome of the elections
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Dubai seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place: Iran and the US. ++ Recently Dubai has served as a critical trading partner allowing Iran to circumnavigate sanctions imposed by the US. ++ Dubai re-exports many goods it receives from the US to Iran, including computer circuitry that was used in IEDs in Iraq against American forces. ++ With Iran refusing to halt its nuclear program, Dubai
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Despite negotiations with the EU and sanctions from the US, the ultimate purpose of Iran’s nuclear facilities remains unclear. ++ A closer relationship is needed to monitor Iran’s nuclear activity. ++ This relationship should be business oriented, allowing Iran to develop its nuclear energy capabilities, which would in turn be purchased by clients such as the US, France, and Russia. ++
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If Obama is elected, a VP Joe Biden will likely mean positive developments for troubled US-Iran relations. ++ Biden’s experiences with Iranian diplomacy legitimize Obama’s call for direct contact with Tehran. ++ However, Biden’s plans to negotiate with Iran may cost Obama some Jewish votes and Biden may have to give in to a more hawkish stance. ++ But Biden’s more conciliatory approach toward
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It is the Hamas’s illegitimate rule that prevents progress between Israel and the Palestinians, not Israel itself. ++ However, Palestinian protesters stick to the anti-Israel dogma and do not question the extremists’ destructiveness even though they need to ask Israel more and more often for help. ++ Therefore, “it is time to realize that bashing Israel will not build Palestine.” ++
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A strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, whether by the US or Israel, is a disastrous idea. ++ If Iran is attacked oil prices may rise to $200 a barrel which would be a hard hit for the global economy. ++ Iranian nuclear facilities are too widely dispersed to be fully destroyed by warplanes, which means an attack would only delay the progress towards getting a bomb; it is also likely to harden
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There is a trend among Sunni Arab states to revitalize diplomatic ties with Iraq. ++ The growing Shia influence backed by Iran may have alarmed them. ++ But instead of pressuring the US to ensure the Sunni’s reinsertion into Iraqi politics, Arab officials now try to integrate Iraq’s Shia government back into “the Arab fold.” ++ Unfortunately, the efforts can not be successful if Saudi-Arabia
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Two of the EU’s key assumptions towards Russia have been proven wrong: firstly, Russia obviously does not share the Western values and secondly, Russia does not oppose Iran going nuclear. ++ Moscow can assume that a nuclear Iran will hurt Western interests more than Russian and will shape balance of power favorably for Russia. ++ Yet, there is still a chance for the EU to pressure Iran through
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Iran remains mute on Georgia crisis. ++ US-Russia rift could spoil Iran Six negotiations; or increase Russia’s engagement. ++ Historical ties to Georgia and more recent fears of Russian aggressiveness should lead Iran to condemn this violation of Georgian sovereignty. ++ Tehran needs to act as an impartial mediator. ++ An adverse effect on Russian-Iranian relations has to be risked. ++ Post-9/11
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Now that the Bush administration has reneged on its hard line against negotiations, Iran does not take US ultimatums seriously. ++ Where progressives see flexibility, Iranian officials see weakness.++ As long as there are no sanctions, Iran could import all the technology they need throughout negotiations. ++ Diplomacy with an insincere opponent does more harm than good. ++ With its diplomatic
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His presidency coming to an end, Bush becomes obsessed with his legacy and solving the issue of nuclear Iran is foremost in his mind. ++ If he decides to support Israel in its possible attack on Iran, the economic and political costs would be disastrous: oil prices would soar, terrorist attacks worldwide would follow, and the possibility of any dialogue between Iran and the West would be ruined
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US government has a tendency to “squash mosquitoes with TNT,” which shows in its treatment of Iran. ++ There’s no need to fear Iran: Ahamadinejad is only a figurehead putting on a show of might to gain respect in the Muslim world; the real power is in the hands of religious leaders, many of whom are sympathetic to the West. ++ The fact that Americans don’t see that reveals they
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The permanent members of the UN security council condemn Iran, but they are just as guilty of nuclear proliferation. ++ The distinction between their supposedly “responsible” ownership of nuclear weapons and that of Iran, North Korea or Pakistan is entirely arbitrary: US, Russia, UK, and France refuse to disarm and have all declared they would be prepared to use their nuclear arsenal against a
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Israel faces a dilemma: If European diplomacy fails to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment program and Americans prove reluctant to launch another war in the Middle East under Bush, should Israel strike alone? ++ An attack could dangerously unite Iranians behind their president and influence the presidential race in the US. ++ But Israeli leaders believe in an emergency - estimates suggest Iran could
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The Bush administration has recently shifted its approach toward Iran and is treating it with unjustified leniency: the possibility of reopening a diplomatic mission in Tehran and face-to-face meetings are gestures Iran hasn’t earned. ++ Tehran continues with its uranium enrichment program, tests missiles capable of reaching Europe, sponsors terrorism in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza and
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Thirty years after cutting off diplomatic ties, the US is planning the establishment of a modest diplomatic representation in Tehran for which it appears to have secured Iranian approval. ++ Though this shift from previous hard-line policies toward Tehran may essentially be an effort on Bush’s behalf to “leave a ‘positive legacy’ behind,” he is thereby also hinting at US engagement to a
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The situation in the Middle East is past the point when sanctions and diplomatic talks can still make a difference. ++ The Islamic Republic is not going to yield, it is simply playing for time while trying to produce deliverable nuclear weapons. ++ Instead of insisting on the measures which apparently do not work, the US should consider helping Israel if it decides to strike Iran or at least not
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The West is more concerned about who proliferates than whether someone degradates the Non-Proliferation Treaty. ++ A manageable relationship with Iran requires understanding its world view and equally and respectfully acknowledging its interests. ++ Security rewards should replace sanctions: Israel could for instance be warned “that any unilateral attack on Iran would force the US to reconsider
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Since the Cold War, US foreign policy has struggled to find a “main enemy,” thereby defining its focus. ++ Global politics, however, have returned to a status quo, in which a broad range of problems, with long-term resilience and requiring non-ideological responses, will be better served with America’s continuing strategic advantage on most fronts. ++ On a non-governmental
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Iranian diplomacy reflects pride, self-confidence, and a decreasing fear of the US and Israel. ++ Whereas Tehran’s hard-liners are using the argument of Western weakness to justify their rejection of compromise, pragmatic voices believe it is time for Iran to negotiate and “consolidate its gains.” ++ At present, Iran’s course is unclear: “even as they talk about diplomacy, the Iranians continue
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“If you want to make peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” ++ The US must heed the lessons learned from North Korea in dealing with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. ++ Had Bush agreed to a dialogue years before Pyongyang’s test explosion in 2006, the US would be negotiating in a position of strength, not weakness. ++ Nations concerned with global security
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The US-India nuclear pact, declared “almost certainly dead” last month, will probably be signed by the Indian government after all. ++ The onus of getting it implemented is therefore back on the US. ++ Congress must stop pressuring India into backing US policy on Iran. ++ India shouldn’t have to choose between good relations with itself and Tehran. ++ PM Manmohan Singh will not agree to toe
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Globalization means that international affairs no longer occur in a bipolar, unipolar, or even multipolar world, but rather “under conditions of nonpolarity.” ++ In this nonpolar world, coordination between actors is increasingly difficult, and agreements are rarely reached. ++ The problem of Iran, currently Israel’s top concern, will unlikely motivate the international community to act in
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Israeli government claims the extent of the Iranian threat is being underplayed and that no diplomatic pressure can prevent Iranians getting nuclear weapons. ++ Shaul Mofaz, member of Israel’s security cabinet, announced last week that “attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.” ++ Despite Israel’s skepticism, the only solution is diplomacy and sanctions. ++ Present
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“A US willingness to talk to Iran on the full range of issues dividing the two countries offers the best hope of rescuing a failed policy.” ++ If the US does not negotiate with Iran as proposed by Obama, they will be lacking options besides attacking Iran. ++ The Europeans, Russia, and China are already in dialogue with Teheran. ++ After coordinating with the Europeans, the US should start
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Despite positive developments between Israel and many of its adjacent neighbors, the increasing frequency with which Israel speaks of attacking Iran must not be ignored by the West. ++ Israel either truly plans to attack and “is preparing the ground, militarily and politically,” or it is trying to “spur the rest of the world into action.” ++ The West must act now, before Israel does anything that
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India’s domestic political squabbles are hindering its nuclear program with the US. ++ Afraid that scrupulous international monitoring would undermine India’s traditionally independent foreign policy, the Communist component of the current coalition is blocking a final endorsement. ++ Politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are baffled, as this deal is nothing but advantageous. ++
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Britain’s foreign secretary argues that if the new “dual-track approach” regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations fails, it is the Iranian’s own fault. ++ Convinced that the region and the world need a cooperative, sanction-free Iran, the West is offering generous incentives, including assistance for a civilian-based nuclear energy program, in return for Iran’s
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Coercive diplomacy is America’s only remaining option as its influence declines in the Middle East. ++ Especially in the case of an Obama presidency, this “changed constellation” in the region calls for India to readjust its strategy. ++ India needs to balance Israel and Syria, and constructively engage Iran. ++ Like China, India should acknowledge the region’s importance for its own energy
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Albeit reversible, the situation is improving in Iraq as the government gains confidence and increasingly asserts its independence from the US and Iran. ++ Despite the lack of jobs, clean water, and electricity, Iraqis are benefiting from high oil prices and can hope for a normal future. ++ Both plans for precipitated withdrawal and remaining indefinitely are foolish. ++ Swift diplomacy is now
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Al-Maliki wants good relations both with Iran and with the US but ongoing tensions between the two are putting him in a difficult position. ++ The Iraqi Prime Minister cannot afford to ruffle Iran’s feathers because of the large Shia majority in Iraq, which is loyal to Tehran, but Iraq also needs Western help. ++ The UN mandate for Iraq ends on December 31, 2008, and Iran has tried hard to
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Bush is moving toward helping the Saudis develop a nuclear program under the guise of energy security. ++ Considering that Saudi Arabia bathes in oil and basks in sunlight, something is missing. ++ Adding a counterweight to Iran’s nuclear aspirations is what this is actually about. ++ The US should heed the lessons of history, that its addiction to oil spreads extremism and that adding nuclear
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Attacking Iran would be disastrous, many civilians would die, the nuclear program would subsist, and Israel’s involvement would create a serious backlash in the region. ++ Iran’s threats toward Israel give reason for concern but sanctions and diplomatic incentives - both endorsed by Obama and McCain - should be favored over military action. ++ If the UN does not authorize applying punitive
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Bush and Olmert’s allusions to war with Iran are the result of their foreign and domestic policy predicaments. ++ Both leaders need to create a diversion to save themselves politically, and “if either - or both - should order a military strike against Iran, it will not be because Iran has done anything that could seriously threaten either Israel or the US.” ++ Since Iran has thus far remained a
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Europe is playing a dangerous game with Iran. ++ Supporting US-endorsed sanctions while simultaneously maintaining business ties with Iran has resulted in a “schizophrenic policy.” ++ While the US sees a nuclear Iran as absolutely unacceptable, many Europeans’ worst nightmare instead is a US or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. ++ “Europe’s new leaders may speak loudly, but they still
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Since economic sanctions are the best means to cause unrest among the Iranian population, they are also the most effective tool to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. ++ However, Russia needs to be on board. ++ The Western offer to the Kremlin should be impossible to refuse, and must compensate for what Russia currently gains by dealing with Iran. ++ Russia will join the boycott if the
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The current propaganda campaign against Iran is similar to that against Iraq before the US-led invasion. ++
Without Iran’s cooperation peace and stability in Iraq cannot be achieved. ++ The more immediate danger is not Iranian nuclear ambition, but the transformation of the Gulf into a theater of artificial Sunni-versus-Shia tensions. ++ Contrary to most Western news accounts, the IAEA
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The US position vis-a-vis Iran and North Korea has been weakened in the past several years, not out of a reluctance to engage in talks, or because of the emptiness of threats of using force, but because of a failure to formulate a clear-cut policy. ++ As the military option is unrealistic, America should focus on the many diplomatic and economic levers at its disposal. ++ John McCain’s refusal to
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Iran cannot be prevented from acquiring nuclear power capabilities. ++ The US should therefore favor negotiation with the regime over the current threats and sanctions driven policy which merely provides for hostile relations. ++ Since “a successful approach to Iran has to accommodate its security interests and ours,” strategic deterrence should prove effective. ++ Additionally, cooperation could
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The US proposal of a regional nuclear defense shield against Iran is not being met with enthusiasm by its allies in the Persian Gulf. ++ As business ties with Iran deepen, the Gulf States perceive the offer of the US as a short-sighted attempt to divide the Middle East, and as potentially highly destabilizing. ++ It is in the US’s own interest not to force its allies into making an unnecessary
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Failed US foreign policy pushed Iran into a hegemonic role it never could have attained under its own power and in such a short time. ++ Iran’s nuclear program threatens to tilt the regional strategic balance enduringly. ++ It is very likely that the US and Israel will solve this problem before Bush steps down. ++ “Iran’s nuclear program will be handled militarily, not
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The recent agreement between Lebanese political factions promised to end the 18 month long political deadlock. ++ Although it amounted to a significant shift of power in favour of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah, the governmental officials believe it helped avoid a civil war. + + Yet the deal did not resolve the questions that provoked the crisis in December 2006. ++ Those include
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Iran, which is the OPEC’s second’s largest exporter, has enough natural gas to alleviate Western Europe’s uncomfortable reliance on Russia’s energy exports. ++ Disputes over pipelines, political blocking, and current US sanctions on capital inflow into Iran stand in the way of exploiting this huge potential. ++ Much depends on the coming elections, both in the US and Iran,
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While Iran’s nuclear program frustrates the West and demonstrates “the limits of American power,” feelings of satisfaction and success unite Iranians. ++ Western incentives for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment - such as commercial contracts - are unimaginative and defective. ++ Since Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions won’t ebb, the US and its EU Allies should encourage a plan that trades
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The conflict in Lebanon is part of the larger regional struggle between Arabs and Iran over influence in the region. ++ Hizbollah military action shows that there is a new game in town. ++ While Iran armed, financed and supported Hizbollah, the Arabs limited their support to the legitimate Lebanon government. ++ In fact, Arab league has failed to have any impact on any major development in the
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Obama advocates leading open and direct negotiations with everyone, from Iran to Cuba. ++ His opposition to the Iraq war, his rational stance on Iran, and his “understanding of US imperialism” suggest he will reshape American foreign policy. ++ Yet Obama’s readiness to compromise does not apply to the Middle East. ++ Since Obama’s presidency would provide for high expectations, the predictable
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Amid escalating rhetoric about Iranian military involvement in Iraq, a new package of incentives by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany is unlikely to persuade Iran to suspend nuclear enrichment. ++ As long as open-ended suspension remains the prerequisite for the continuation of talks, Iran will continue its defiance. ++ “The insistence on this precondition
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Recent escalating disputes and mutual suspicion between the government and the Shiite militia Hezbollah in Lebanon raise fears of a new civil war. ++ Arab countries are concerned that Hezbollah may be attempting to spread Iranian influence to Iraq and Lebanon. ++ All parties involved - especially the Arab League and the US - should promote regional and inter-factional cooperation. ++ Political
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The old Middle East and the secular nationalism that went along with it is being replaced by a new, modern Middle East in which political Islam and anti-Western nationalism play a decisive role. ++ There is now a serious threat of “a confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia for sub-regional supremacy, and between Iran and the US for regional hegemony.” ++ The entire state system in the
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According to the US, Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism causing heavy casualties in Iraq. ++ Iranian Hussein Shariatmadari denies this with the claim Iran shares Iraq’s interest in ending US occupation and armed militias. ++ Though the discovery of Iranian weaponry in Iraq suggests Iran is arming Shiite militias, Iranian authorities maintain they would sell weaponry to any party. ++ US
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Concerning the Iranian enrichment program, international attention shouldn’t exclusively be on the receiving country. ++ Indian and European companies deliver nuclear supplies to Iran. ++ Tightening up control over European nuclear industries and doing so transparently, while enlisting the cooperation of Russia and China in this effort is necessary to stop Iranian nuclear weapon
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Recent Arab public opinion polls confirm a “gap between the aims of American policies and Arab public perceptions of the US.” ++ They also highlight that the US could improve its image by brokering peace between Palestine and Israel and by withdrawing from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula. ++ While US policies are clearly opposed, middle ground could be found regarding democratic values and
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Obama and Clinton may agree on many issues, but they champion two very different approaches towards US foreign policy in the Middle East. ++ Obama opposes the notion of a “clash of civilizations” and supports engaging moderates and democrats in the Muslim world. ++ Clinton would follow a path similar to that of the Bush administration and focus on defending US allies and deterring Iran.
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Contrary to the Bush administration’s claim last week, the main interest of Iran in Iraq is not to predicate on violence but to stabilize this country. ++ To prevent the possible future aggression from the Sunnites and to stop the agitation for Kurdish autonomy, Iran should not derange the unfolding democratic process. ++ To emerge as the leading power in the Gulf, Iran needs the withdrawal of US
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US disengagement in Iraq will increase long term stability in the region. ++ Al-Qaeda is not behind most of the insurgency. ++ Disengagement should include serious dialogues with Iraqi leaders and those of neighboring areas, including Iran. ++ Overall goal of US strategy should be to stabilize the Middle East by ending the war in Iraq, negotiating with Iran, and leading Israel and Palestine to
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Iran and the US are not doomed to remain eternal enemies. ++ The two countries share profound strategic interests such as stabilizing Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; preventing the spread of Russian influence; and ensuring that Middle Eastern oil flow smoothly to Western markets. ++ A path towards comprehensive negotiations should be adopted as it is low cost and could yield extremely remarkable
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Israel’s legitimate nuclear program is not a valuable excuse for Russia to jeopardize international security by supplying a reactor to Iran and by agreeing on nuclear cooperation with
Egypt. ++ The international community should strive to prevent unstable democracies from acquiring nuclear weapons, acknowledge that Iran is not just a threat to Israel but to the world, and hold Russia
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During Merkel’s visit, Israel needs to clarify that Germany must support tougher sanctions, break diplomatic ties, and end governmental trade subsidies with Iran. ++ Brown and Sarkozy are already supportive of more restrictive sanctions, but if Germany remains indecisive, effective action against Iran will be impossible. ++ Israel only further endangers itself claiming that Germany is doing
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Owing to Iran’s unique political culture combining elements of democracy and autocracy, Ahmadinejad’s hard-liners will face pragmatic conservatives on March 14. ++ Despite the pressure of the paramilitary, economic mismanagement could enable the president’s adversaries to gain ground. ++ Iran may step away from revolutionary radicalism but it would still be too soon “to write Ahmadinejad’s
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The US’s current “insistence on zero enrichment of uranium” in Iran is unreasonable. ++ The US needs to encourage Iran to abandon its national enrichment activities in favor of a multilateral program based in Iran. ++ While there would be many risks, such a program would deter Iranian proliferation, help Iran further its nuclear power agenda, and ensure greater transparency regarding its nuclear
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In the wake of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, the EU should continue with their diplomatic approach, despite US calls for more unilateral sanctions, says Volker Perthes of the SWP. Such an approach should be based on a broad international consensus, clearly communicating that the issue is proliferation and not the nature of the Iranian regime, and come with an earnest offer of
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The results of the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear program reveal nothing distinctly different from previous findings. Nevertheless, their ensuing debate could prove critical to long-term transatlantic strategy on Iran says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund.
The strategic implications of the new NIE reveal that Iran may opt for an ambiguous nuclear
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As Egypt declares its intentions to pursue nuclear energy, it joins other thirteen states in the Middle East with the same aim. Iran’s nuclear plans seem to be responsible for this troubling trend, writes Dan Murphy from the Christian Science Monitor.
While the group includes Libya, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, only Jordan and Egypt seem to have legitimate claims to nuclear power. Jordan possesses
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Europe has become heavily reliant on Russia to meet its energy needs. This trend undermines Europe’s self-confidence and jeopardizes its geopolitical position as well as that of the United States, says Ariel Cohen from the Heritage Foundation.
Russia’s agenda seeks to perpetuate dependence by consolidating Gazprom’s position at home and abroad. As foreign companies such as Shell and BP fail to
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Zogby International publishes results of the latest telephone poll conducted on key current issues. After tensions have risen to an all-time-high between the United States and Iran, the poll shows 52% of those surveyed support a military strike against the Persian country to prevent the success of their nuclear program.
Among presidential candidates, Senator Hillary Clinton was considered by 21
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Despite tough rhetoric from Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany continues to play a role in Iran’s nuclear program, writes Benjamin Weinthal in Haaretz. Germany’s official public stance looks shaky in the face of the $5.7 billion in deals closed by German firms with Tehran in 2006. Furthermore, a number of German companies are under investigation for the unlawful supply of technology to
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Transportation of energy resources was top of the agenda during a recent talk between the presidents of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, reports News Central Asia. Presidents Nazarbaev and Berdymuhamedov said their countries had reached an agreement on cooperation for transit and transportation of energy resources. Until now Kazakhstan’s energy exports have been dependant on the Russian
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French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner toned down the pitch of remarks he made earlier this week on the possibility of war with Iran, this time emphasizing negotiations over the use of military measures, report Katrin Bennhold and Elaine Sciolino for the New York Times. French Intelligence fears that Iran may produce a nuclear weapon before the projected 2010-2015 window.
Kouchner
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Wall Street Journal columnist Bret Stephens breaks down the intrigue surrounding Israel’s military operations over Syria on September 6. “In a country of open secrets,” Israel’s customary fleet of spokesmen and pundits has remained conspicuously silent, says Stephens. But why? None of the explanations circulating in the news media—the theory that North Korea was using Syria as a safe
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Congressman Mark Kirk (R-Illinois) reveals in the Washington Post that hundreds of millions of dollars are pouring into Iran through the World Bank, despite UNSC and IAEA conclusions that Iran has ignored its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It appears that there is a major disconnect between multilateral organizations over how to jointly confront the pressing issues
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FP lists the top most valuable disputed turfs that might just be worth a fight. The world was astonished by Russia’s recent claim to the arctic shelf, with potential for billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves. But looking globally, many other strategic and mineral rich territories are just as highly contested between several countries. Japan vs. China, Venezuela against major US oil
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Yossi Mekelberg, Associate Fellow at Chatham House, analyzes Israeli policy options towards Iran and potential consequences.
Though Israel would prefer that issues with Tehran be resolved diplomatically through the international community, it perceives Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat and cannot rule out the military option.
However, Menkelberg argues that military
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The creation of a legitimate US missile defense system requires a NATO framework, bipartisan support within the US, and Russian participation, argues Ronald Asmus of the German Marshall Fund. The Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board member sees danger of a new division into “Old” and “New” Europe unless these key elements are resolved. While influential US allies Angela Merkel and Jaap de Hoop
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The United Nations approach to halting the Iranian nuclear program is a deepening hole that the Security Council and Germany should “stop digging,” says Christoph Bertram, the former director of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin and a member of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board. Bertram notes that attempts at sanctioning Iran have heightened Tehran’s
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Veteran Middle East reporter John K. Cooley suggests the US initiate a comprehensive, formal dialogue with Iran on the issues that have divided the two countries since Iran’s 1979 revolution. The minimum objective of this dialogue should be the halt of Iranian uranium enrichment and plutonium diversion for weapons production. A four-step peace plan—including cooperation in Afghanistan and Iraq
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The US-Russian relationship during President Putin’s tenure has seesawed between mutual cooperation and confrontation, says Lionel Beehner of the US Council on Foreign Relations. The three main reasons for these recent tensions are the American intentions to establish an antimissile shield, expand NATO, and encourage the installation of pro-Western governments across Eastern Europe. Putin has
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Chatham House researchers John Mitchell and Glada Lahn advise that although production abroad by Asian national oil companies (ANOCs) is small right now, its relevance to global energy security could change if ANOCs gain significant positions in Iraq or Iran. ANOC host governments are attracted to such Middle East investment by the lower requirements for transparency or diminished social
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Since Israel failed to declare victory in the 2006 war in Lebanon, the Shi’a axis (Iran-Syria-Hezbollah) has only grown stronger and will continue to do so once the US withdraws its troops from Iraq, or Iran builds a nuclear warhead. So writes Yaakov Amidror of the Israeli Army in his account of the outcome of the war. Despite religious conflict with Sunni countries in the region, the revitalized
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