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Tim Foxley: Too little time, effort and analytical resources are dedicated to understanding what the Taliban are saying - and that a change in this approach could lead to a change in the war.
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Interviews with YATA Delegates: Youth Atlantic Treaty Association delegates interviewed at their General Assembly held in Berlin in November 2008. The topics range from Russian relations to what Obama will ask Europe to do.
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William Maley: In the battle to win hearts and minds in Afghanistan, Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) are often on the front line. What are they actually, what are their tasks and ways of operating?
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Editorial Team: The escalation of pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia has brought about widespread discussion as to how to deal with this increasingly prevalent problem. We are inviting you to tell us what you think is the most viable way forward through our interactive poll.
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Memo 10: With President-elect Obama about to take his seat in the Oval Office, it is high time for a transformation of transatlantic relations. In this new era, the US must distance itself from the unipolar policies of the past and come to terms with a multipolar world. The EU has to develop more proactive policies.
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Stanley R. Sloan: The hegemonic behavior of the Bush administration during its first term almost led to the end of the transatlantic partnership. The US will not be able to face the challenges of this century without its allies and NATO. A closely coordinated US-EU-NATO cooperation is essential to attain shared interests.
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David S. Yost : In order to deal with new security challenges, NATO is developing its concept for cooperation with civilian organizations. Since the early 1990’s, the European Union, the OSCE and the United Nations have been the closest partners. Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan are showing how crucial it is to expand this work.
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Jeffrey Mankoff: Washington and London have proposed dropping the NATO MAPs for Georgia and Ukraine, favoring an open-ended development plan for both countries. Germany and France protest such unorthodoxy, but this more flexible approach might allow NATO to balance its Russian interests with eventual expansion.
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NATO Channel: Two video reports give an insight into the encouraging development of Afghanistan’s security forces as the take-over from foreign forces begins to be consolidated.
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Christian Mölling: International organizations aim to overcome inefficiencies in complex crisis management by adopting “comprehensive approaches”. However, the implementation is affected by diverging security cultures and the particular interests of the member states.
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Bernhard Lucke: The US and NATO should develop exit strategies instead of increasing their military presence in Afghanistan. Winning back tribal leaders’ allegiance is the key to successfully drawing down troops. Western policy makers can learn many valuable lessons from the Soviet failure in Afghanistan.
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Interview with Jackson Janes: The executive director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies tells Atlantic-community.org that Russia, energy security, climate change, Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the financial crisis are all pressing issues to be addressed jointly by Germany and the United States under an Obama administration.
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Daniel Korski: EU engagement in Afghanistan will affect Washington’s perception of its strategic partnership. The best way for the EU to stay a strong partner is to extend the aid-and-security approach of its Provincial Reconstruction Teams and take the concept to Kabul. Diplomacy with Pakistan will remain important.
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Memo 9: Afghanistan needs a continued international commitment to ensure its security and assist in economic and social development. The US, EU and Germany must focus on training local authorities. Cooperating with Iran and the Taliban remains a point of debate.
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Morgan Sheeran: Europe can contribute to progress in Afghanistan outside of the military arena: mentoring Afghan ministry officials, instilling policies of good governance, and developing the Afghan economy could ultimately provide as much security as any troop contribution.
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Florian Broschk: Extending the German ISAF mandate requires a broad public debate on the mission’s goals and strategies in Afghanistan. Germany must recognize the importance of counterinsurgency and improve a variety of its tactics - human intelligence, language training, and a greater troop presence.
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Abbas Daiyar: The Afghan Foreign Minister’s statement opposing talks with insurgents emphasizes existing divisions within government circles in Afghanistan and abroad. The US and NATO must win the war in Afghanistan. Involving regional countries like Russia, China and India may prevent history from repeating itself.
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Kamil Zwolski: While security problems around the world cry for the broadest coalition possible, NATO and Russia keep falling back into a Cold War state of mind. Moscow proposes a new European security deal as a long-term solution and has criticized the present system as outdated and US-dominated. A new plan is needed to address modern security threats, including climate change.
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From the Editorial Team: General John Craddock, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, criticizes member states’ “wavering political will,” which prevents NATO from operating effectively. Is NATO an outdated body as many claim, or can it overcome political hesitations and remain a strong alliance?
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Morgan Sheeran: The Afghans have to secure their own country. The army has benefitted from Western training, but the police continues to lack active mentoring from ISAF. While a surge of combat troops in Afghanistan could be beneficial, what is needed the most are more police trainers and mentors. The police is the lynchpin of security for each village.
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Marek Swierczynski: Russia’s naval power prevents NATO from effectively defending Baltic States. If the Alliance is serious about its commitments, it must strengthen its marine capabilities to match those of the Russian Baltic Fleet.
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David Neil Lebhar: Ahmed Rashid argues that the conflict in Afghanistan needs a regional solution, including US-Iranian cooperation. The German military must intensify operations in northern Afghanistan, and the government has to educate the public about the mission’s importance.
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Djörn Eversteijn: NATO’s reliance on its global partnerships may seem innocuous today. Contributions in Afghanistan from a diverse array of nations, such as Australia and South Korea, are seen as indispensable in security and reconstruction efforts. Until a full commitment by member states is exhibited, though, NATO’s long-term credibility is in danger.
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Thorsten Benner & Lars Zimmermann: Germany lacks an informed and responsible debate on the country’s engagement in Afghanistan. The looming populism of the 2009 election year is set to make matters even worse. Politicians and the media must prevent this from happening.
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Memo 8: Atlantic Community members conclude that the EU, acting in coordination with the UN, is in the best position to negotiate a peaceful solution. The US, Russia, Georgia, NATO, and others must consider their future strategies carefully.
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Atlantik-Brücke’s Young Leaders: The Atlantic partners must jointly address the economic slowdown, competition over scarce resources and energy dependence. Moreover, the transatlantic relationship faces an immediate, critical test in Afghanistan. Success there is needed as a demonstration of our ability to effectively address common security threats.
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Djörn Eversteijn: Afghanistan is the litmus test for the relevance of history’s most successful military alliance in the 21st century. Despite official statements that emphasize the importance of the alliance’s mission in Afghanistan, both member states’ long-term commitment and substantial contributions to the mission remain largely absent. Member states’ unwillingness not only endangers the future of Afghanistan, but, perhaps even more importantly, also puts the future of the transatlantic alliance at risk.
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Stefan Fröhlich: The fighting between Russia and Georgia over the separatist enclave of South Ossetia is turning into a reversion of spheres of influence and a balance of power politics in Europe. The EU and the Euro-Atlantic community must take steps to mediate new developments.
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Christoph Bertram: No one should have been surprised at the way in which Russia has treated tiny and weak Georgia. What is surprising, however, is the eagerness with which many western governments continue to pretend that they can wield effective influence on Russia’s behavior in the Caucasus.
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David Francis: The EU must take a strong yet cooperative stance toward Russia. The next US administration must regain its moral standing in international politics. Ultimately, Moscow must understand that its recent actions in Georgia are unacceptable.
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Interview with Hussain Haqqani: Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States reaffirms his country’s democracy and promises better cooperation with the United States and Afghanistan in an interview with Steve Clemons of the New America Foundation.
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Ulf Gartzke: Mikhail Saakashvili’s reckless military gamble has unfortunately paid off and put him on a fast track to NATO membership. This stunning turnaround demonstrates the problems with the behavior of the Georgian leadership as well as with the West’s response to their actions.
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Grigol Ubiria: NATO’s eastern enlargement is too often solely considered from the perspective of Russia’s right to defend its interests on its borders. Little or no attention has been paid to factors forcing former Soviet republics, particularly Georgia and Ukraine, to rush to join the alliance.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: Despite the proclaimed cooperative approach, Franco-American tensions could grow bigger than under Chirac. Sarkozy’s Euro-Atlantic, yet independent, foreign policy moves could well be at odds with the next US president’s understanding of multilateralism.
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Memo 7: The members of the Atlantic Community believe that Ukraine belongs to Europe. Ukraine needs to be integrated into Western alliances without undermining Western-Russian relations.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: NATO’s nuclear posture is dated and needs to be reconsidered during next year’s review. If NATO withdraws sub-strategic nuclear weapons from Europe it can pursue a leverage strategy to persuade Russia to also eliminate its tactical nuclear weapons.
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Transatlantic Press Round-up: The 2008 White Paper sets the tone for the next decade of French defense policy. Although France’s “loss of independence” is controversial, many welcome the progress towards synchronization of the French, European, and transatlantic security and defense strategies.
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Anatol Lieven: NATO might fail in Afghanistan. Hopes for democracy, development, and progress in Afghanistan are already dead. Even though the situation seems hopeless, the West can and should prevent further deterioration.
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Jens F. Laurson and George A. Pieler: NATO is trying to expand its military wing to more countries, which used to be “the enemy,” in its effort to secure its future. However, Europe’s reliance on imported oil should be considered before alienating exporters like Russia in the attempt of reinventing NATO’s aging alliance.
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Heinrich Bonnenberg: Germany and the EU must give stronger credit to Ukraine’s emergence as an independent democracy in the tradition of Europe’s historic liberal movements. The EU should quickly enable Ukrainian accession, but NATO membership should not be pursued, as this would likely exasperate tensions with Russia.
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Memo 6: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen.
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Richard G. Lugar: We must forge a more productive relationship with Russia. The absence of a collective energy security strategy and the lack of supply diversification will lead to greater fragmentation among European nations and across the Atlantic.
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Peter van Ham: NATO is slowly losing its significance as the central platform to manage transatlantic security challenges. In view of the different reasons for the Alliance’s declining relevance, its resilience, rather than its demise should surprise us.
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Marek Swierczynski: The NATO-isation of missile defense at the Bucharest summit paradoxically carried away the Poland-US agreement on the issue. The once all-uniting idea of placing the interceptors on Poland’s Baltic coast is losing political support and negotiations are reported to be close to a stall. The current round of the talks is not expected to push things forward.
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Péter Marton: Afghanistan needs an external security guarantee for the long term. NATO should provide that guarantee against clashing external influence-seeking endeavours, but it can only do so it if it sheds its geopolitical identity for the Afghan mission. That is how a neutral strategic identity could be secured for Afghanistan.
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James Jones: While NATO forces are needed in Afghanistan, the real focus should be on fighting narcotics, building up an effective judicial system, increasing Afghan police capabilities, empowering a single individual to represent the international community, and acknowledging regional difficulties.
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Daniel Rackowski: With Sarkozy contemplating bringing France back into the NATO fold, the need for a strong European defense force is at the forefront, writes Daniel Rackowski for ISN Security Watch.
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T. Noetzel & B. Schreer: Despite a theoretically clear strategy, NATO is both politically and militarily ill-prepared to execute the required counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan. An Afghan disaster might not be a death sentence for the Alliance, but would certainly have major repercussions.
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Daniel Korski & Richard Gowan: Away from the limelight and with other world events getting the media’s attention, the situation in Kosovo has been getting worse and worse. And it all started so well with the EU managing to get a consensus for its ESDP mission and two-thirds of EU states backing the province’s independence.
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Andreas Umland: Don’t overestimate Berlin’s statements concerning Russian interests in the former USSR
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Frank-Walter Steinmeier: For the past 60 years the transatlantic relationship has been the world’s transformative partnership. America’s relationship with Europe - more than with any other part of the world - enables both of us to achieve goals that neither of us could achieve alone.
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Marek Swierczynski: The Lisbon Treaty opens a new path for the European Security and Defense Policy. After Europe failed to create either a relevant European defense capability or a common security strategy, it favors a collective defense that may ultimately threaten NATO.
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Atlantic Community SURVEY: 23 European and US policy analysts and our members express stronger support for Ukraine’s NATO aspirations than witnessed at the Bucharest Summit. Advocacy for fast NATO enlargement correlates with geographic proximity to Russia.
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Marek Swierczynski: NATO’s decision to delay a major enlargement should only be viewed in a positive light if it results in better management of the Afghan mission, and the Alliance keeps up the pace to relaunch negotiations with Ukraine and Georgia.
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Stanley R. Sloan: Besides agreeing on devoting more military and non-military resources to the mission in Afghanistan, NATO leaders at the Bucharest Summit should start drafting a new strategic concept and a contemporary Atlantic Charter for the new American administration to tackle in 2009.
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Daniel Korski: Something odd is happening across Europe’s security landscape. In spite of British Prime Minister Brown’s euro-scepticism, and Britain’s supposed European isolation following the Iraq War, London is once again becoming the centerpiece of European security cooperation.
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Rüdiger Lentz: Increasing debates within the Alliance about the inequity of risk- and burden-sharing among its members overshadow the upcoming summit in Bucharest. Especially, the Germans are being pressured by Washington and their Western allies to send more fighting troops to Afghanistan.
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Wess Mitchell: While the United States has been prodding the alliance’s second-tier members, newcomers have stepped up in Afghanistan.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: Secretary-General De Hoop Scheffer must find a compromise between NATO members: those who don’t want to anger Russia and those pushing to include Eastern European states.
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Ambassador Victoria Nuland: “Europe needs, the United States needs, NATO needs, the democratic world needs – a stronger, more capable European defense capacity.”
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Marek Swierczynski: Just before the NATO summit in Bucharest, the differences on what and how the Alliance should do in the future seem all but rising on both sides of the Atlantic. The Warsaw conference on NATO’s Transformation made fundamental divides clearly visible.
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Dora Bakoyannis: Greece supports the enlargement of NATO in the Western Balkans with the invitations to Croatia and Albania, but the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s “intransigeant stance and its actions of an irredentist and nationalistic logic” are unacceptable.
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Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: When in Washington, Tusk will need to address the role of Polish troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, the necessity of easing visa requirements, and the proposed missile defense shield. Most importantly, Tusk should use his visit to build name recognition and focus on issues important to Poland.
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D. Korski & M. Williams: NATO’s members need to take action if the 60 year old alliance is to survive as a useful organization.
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Dieter Farwick: The NATO defense ministers’ meeting should conclude with an agreement to send additional forces to Afghanistan. The troops can win if given the necessary resources and operational freedom.
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Volker Perthes: I admit that there is no simple checklist to determine how, when, or where German troops should be deployed abroad. But there are a number of valid questions that can be posed before soldiers are sent to peacekeeping and peace-enf
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Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead.
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Dr. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg: I write on the implications of the latest survey of Afghan attitudes toward ISAF activities, and convey the need for continued German engagement in Afghanistan.
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Thomas de Waal: The simmering conflicts in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia could easily flare up. Although they are driven by unresolved regional disputes, both the US and Russia loom large in the background.
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Alexander Bernhard Bitter: Missile defense for Europe is coterminous with NATO’s mission. The European policy of waiting for a new US administration is flawed, as the financial burden of the endeavor could shift heavily toward Europe.
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Dominique Moisi: I considers how likely it is that France will return to NATO’s military command. Regardless of Sarkozy’s decision, the issue represents a new strategy: “to link progress in building a common European defense and security structure with a redefinition of NATO.”
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Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance.
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Marco Overhaus: 2007 and 2008 could be decisive years for the region. A difficult balance must be struck, between a renewed and robust EU engagement in the Western Balkans and the need to make reform efforts locally self-supporting.
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Christoph Bertram: If European governments today distance themselves from America, they will both antagonize and further weaken the US. This will in turn undermine European foreign policy influence around the world.
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Hans Binnendijk: The consequences of failure in Afghanistan would be severe. I offer three points to help European governments make the case for continued participation in the NATO ISAF mission.
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Memo 3: Members of the Atlantic Community question German participation in OEF, support ISAF and want increased emphasis on social issues in Afghanistan. In this Executive Summary, Annette Poelking of the Atlantic Initiative has more on members’ ideas for Afghanistan and an update on the ongoing debate.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: I reject Rudolph Giuliani’s call to expand NATO membership to other, non-Western democracies. Adding states like Australia or India to “globalize” NATO would undermine its original and enduring purpose: collective security through Article 5.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: We need a new philosophy of deterrence against Iran. A tough containment policy, including Russia, and strong defense of Israel could bring about a changed security architecture in the Middle East that might finally include Tehran.
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Atlantic Happy Hour: NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer came to Berlin on a mission to get more German troops into the south of Afghanistan. As the guest of honor at an event run by the Atlantic Initiative, publisher of the Atlantic Community, Scheffer appeared with representatives from five of Germany’s political parties to respond to questions on the future of operations in Afghanistan.
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John Koenig: The transatlantic relationship is more complex—and more vital—than ever before. Responding to Egon Bahr’s article, I note that NATO is and should remain rooted in the transatlantic community.
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Markus Kaim: I advocate merging the military capabilities of Germany’s three current mandates under the ISAF umbrella to bring transatlantic equilibrium to the burden-sharing in Afghanistan. Military participation in Operation Enduring Freedom should end, and ISAF Aerial Reconnaissance and Surveillance should be integrated into a single ISAF directive.
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Egon Bahr: Europe must emancipate itself from the United States and take a stand for multilateralism. I see NATO expansion as an invitation for the US to continue to dominate the alliance—Europe should oppose it.
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David G. Haglund: I blame disagreement over Afghanistan for the disappearance of the golden relationship between Berlin and Ottawa. Canada’s “perfect peacekeepers” want Germans to shoulder their fair share of the NATO burden.
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Thomas Speckmann: Iraq’s label as a “second Vietnam” for the United States does not hold up to scrutiny. Recent changes to US military strategy on terrorism— building infrastructure, winning hearts and minds—come straight out of the Bundeswehr handbook, and they’re working. So why not take them to Kabul?
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Margarita Mathiopoulos: The West cannot afford a globally weak or inept United States. The recent political changes in France, Japan, Britain and Germany present an opportunity to start fresh with a new US administration in 2008.
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Ulf Gartzke: I warn of a looming “nightmare scenario” when EU member states could split from the US and each other over independent status for Kosovo. Results from the latest Bush-Putin summit could raise the stakes.
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Michael John Williams: The EU Battlegroups, though small, are a step in the right direction. The United States can and should play a role in promoting further advancement of European expeditionary capability.
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Memo 1: Members of the Atlantic Community commented on the appropriate role for the EU in Afghanistan.
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Karsten Voigt: Shifting German troops out of the north of Afghanistan would be detrimental to the country. The troops should stay with their original mission, as they are providing significant support to the allied forces.
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Heiko Borchert and Karina Forster: Energy infrastructure security requires a serious military commitment. The EU should pool resources with NATO through joint research in security and technology, military cooperation with key energy partners such as Africa, and mutual education through exchange of lessons learned.
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Heiko Borchert and Karina Forster : We see hard power as integral to the preservation of energy infrastructure. EU-NATO cooperation is therefore key to preserving this vital element of energy security.
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Julianne Smith: I want the EU to take a stronger role in Afghanistan. The EU should act as a coordinating body for the reconstruction and development of the country. This would also strengthen Europe’s standing with its partners.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe will soon be vulnerable to medium-range ballistic missiles. The time to act is now. Europe, Germany and NATO must agree on an anti-missile shield to protect against threats from Iran and others.
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Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board: members discuss the most important issue facing the transatlantic relationship today. Rudolf G. Adam, Christoph Bertram, Philip von Boehm-Bezing, John Hulsman, Eckart von Klaeden, Hans-Ulrich Klose, and Norbert Otten find that the West continues to be a political power player.
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Jan-Friedrich Kallmorgen and Andreas Beckmann: Germany should support the proposed US missile defense plan and broaden the plan through NATO. Though this issue is rarely understood in Germany, it is evident that the world faces a massive security problem as a result of Iran’s developing nuclear program.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe and Germany need missile defense against the threat from Iran. Europe has long neglected the new strategic threats arising from missile proliferation.
This is the first of a two-part series from the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board Member.
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Karsten Voigt: I cannot foresee an end to the German and Allied commitment in Afghanistan as long as the Taliban pose a threat to the country’s stability. We cannot allow pro-terrorist groups to take over, and that good governance is a priority.
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Wess Mitchell: I recommend a security agreement with Prague now to set precedent for missile defense negotiations with other NATO members later, starting with Poland. Bilateral agreements with Eastern European countries would reinforce Washington’s strategic commitment to the region and would not undermine NATO in the least.
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Global Must Read Articles
NATO has become “a military alliance without any political clout” and is in the midst of an identity crisis. ++ The campaign in Afghanistan is suffering because of NATO’s lack of a political voice and a lack of cohesion between Brits and Americans ++ Its vacillation over granting MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia is further evidence of its
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Two attacks against US and NATO convoys near Peshawar in Pakistan have taken place in the last week. ++ The Pakistani army appears to be testing Obama’s will. ++The US and NATO must take adequate steps to respond to these incidents. ++ It is an opportunity for them to acknowledge that the recent attacks in Mumbai were of global proportions and that it was a major mistake to fight the war
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A battle over ex-Soviet republics is taking place between Brussels and Moscow. ++ This quarrel is the subtext to the laborious negotiations over Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO and the EU. ++ The EU has shown a clear desire for greater “association” with its neighbors but refuses to start real talks for fear of angering Russia. ++ A European presence in the region is necessary to
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The British military are increasingly angered by the poor international effort to win over hearts and minds in Afghanistan. ++ British generals have been arguing for years that getting the population on side is the key to success. ++ A top official has called the UN’s support “wholly inadequate.” ++ Meanwhile, the Taliban are “winning the information war.” ++ As NATO screams for more
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NATO ministers meet this week to discuss a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine. ++ “Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is an aspiration to become part of the most effective system of collective security and to share joint responsibility for common space.” ++ Despite protest from Russia, Ukraine must be accepted as a vital ally - peacekeeping missions in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and
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Terrorism is not the key strategic threat facing the US and Obama’s focus on Afghanistan is misguided. ++ NATO’s overemphasis in 2005 destroyed the stable situation of 2004 and the more focus Afghanistan gets now, the harder it will fall after an inevitable withdrawal. ++ Troop increases distract attention from other pressing issues: monetary aid is wasteful and counterproductive,
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Western oriented, business friendly, and governed by smart, young people, Georgia is a country on the rise. ++ NATO should not be her final resting place, though. ++ Georgia doesn’t meet NATO requirements for full control of its territory and a closer look reveals its media is like Russia’s: state run and laden with propaganda. ++ “Georgia’s future is economic
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The hijacking of a Saudi-owned oil tanker is unprecedented but only part of the recent, dramatic rise in piracy. ++ Capturing pirates in not a major problem, but due process makes dealing with captive pirates more complex than in the 1700s. ++ Universal jurisdiction should be applied in this case, allowing any state to try and punish pirates. ++ States should then try them in military courts. ++
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One of Obama’s most trying tasks as president will be to redefine NATO, which lacks “a clear mission” and has “outlived its original purpose.” ++ The thorny issue of Ukrainian and Georgian accession will need to be negotiated with other NATO members. ++ NATO’s mission in Afghanistan is an “out-of-area conflict,” allowing members to decide what role,
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Seven years after the advent of Operation Enduring Freedom, the Taliban, al- Qaeda and various insurgents have regained strength particularly on Afghan and Pakistani soil. The fight for
security in the Middle East has spiralled downward as the Taliban have “established a new “safe haven” in Pakistan. Serious efforts to build a transparent, secure Afghan state with an intact justice system will
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Obama’s proposed “mini-surge” in Afghanistan of some 15,00 troops will not provide enough personnel for the job. ++ Iraq, a smaller country than Afghanistan, required 700,000 soldiers and security forces; there are only 200,000 in Afghanistan. ++ Robert Gates will aid the Afghans in doubling their military size to 200,000, yet more will eventually be needed. ++ Investing American money, beyond
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“The ‘Great Game’ is no fun anymore.” ++ A timeout is needed in Afghanistan so that the players, including Obama, can draught a new deal. ++ A global effort to secure Afghanistan’s stability should be above other objectives. ++ Due to the complex global conflict, a solution cannot be reached without a “regional grand bargain,” which must include a comprehensive
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NATO countries disagree about the floundering mission in Afghanistan, but it is obvious the hardwearing Taliban cannot be crushed by military means alone. ++ More troops would not help keep control in rural areas, where the insurgency is strong. ++ This would prolong the use of air-to-ground bombing to target high-ranking insurgents, resulting in high numbers of civilian casualties. ++ Because
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“Old” and “new” Europe parallel the blue and red state split in the US. ++ In old (western) Europe Obama is viewed as a “ray of hope;” new (central and eastern) Europe raises the question, “Who is Obama?” ++ This can be attributed to a difference in threat perceptions. ++ Nowhere is this exemplified more than in Germany. ++ There, a proto-Kantian
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Russia’s invasion of Georgia is not an aberration - it demonstrates a pattern of aggression, one that now threatens Ukraine as Moscow embraces PM Yulia Tymoshenko. ++ Russia’s relations with Tehran, Syria, OPEC and most recently Venezuela all threaten US interests. ++ Western weakness, especially in Europe, is not an option. ++ Georgia and Ukraine must be brought into NATO; military cooperation
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Americans believed that imperialism could trump nationalism but the Afghans proved them wrong. ++ Foreign occupation of Afghanistan is triggering a backlash inside of the country, as well as destabilizing Pakistan. ++ There is a cascading opinion among US allies that this war cannot be won. ++ The Afghans have suffered enough and the US simply cannot afford an open-ended war. ++ Sometimes a war
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Violence, corruption and lawlessness keep pushing Afghanistan into a “downward spiral.” ++ Foreign troops are part of the problem; the US and the NATO focus on air attacks, “putting the life of occupation troops before civilians.” ++ A growing number of civilian victims intensifies the risk of terror attacks and hinders the country from establishing a stable system. ++ An
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Viktor Yuschenko, president of Ukraine, has called for another parliamentary election in hopes of settling internal divisions symbolized largely by Ukraine’s leading three politicians - Yuschenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovich. ++ This must be a Ukrainian election for Ukrainians. ++ Both Russia and the US (NATO) must keep their hands off. ++ Instead the EU should make Ukraine’s membership in the
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The West is “pushing away” Russia, not the other way around. ++ The US needs to see Russia’s point of view for a change. ++ At the end of the Cold War, there was “no move to meet Russia partway;” instead, the US “talked away” Russian attempts at integration with Western institutions. ++ Yeltsin looked like a puppet for trying to gain acceptance and Putin came to power as a result. ++ It’s time
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Even President Bush has now come to realize that Afghanistan is “the real frontline in the war on terror.” ++ America’s sixteen intelligence agencies agree that Afghanistan is on a “downward spiral.” ++ Sobering estimates say it will be five to ten years before Afghanistan is stabilized. ++ More troops are needed and if NATO allies are unwilling to send them, they should contribute monetarily.
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The Taliban are losing battles in Afghanistan but are winning the war. ++ The situation looks grimmer now than ever before. ++ The war looks it can’t be won, but we must keep trying. ++ NATO can’t win alone, but it should help the Afghan army defend its government - if it’s willing. ++ A civil war could possibly be a key step before being able to reach any kind of agreement
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NATO has lost itself in the in Caucasus conflict. ++ Medvedev has repeatedly outlined his plans for a EU security architecture - he views his country’s security interests neglected. ++ The EU has almost disqualified itself from diplomatic talks by blindly solidarizing with Georgia. ++ The acceptance of Georgia’s wish for future membership in NATO might be a slight to Russia ++ If NATO
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The British commander admitted that winning in Afghanistan is unlikely - reducing the Taliban insurgency to a manageable level may be the only realizable goal. ++ Northern ethnic groups, which account for 60% of the population, are backed by the US, but the Taliban are still the major political force for the Pashtuns constituting 40% of the people. ++ Foreign forces are fighting Pashtun
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US incursions into Cambodia, which led to its destabilization and the rise of the Khmer Rouge, should be remembered. ++ The same mistake is being made in Pakistan, where the dangers are far greater. ++ Undermining Pakistan does not help Afghanistan. ++ A new soft power approach is needed, as “Afghanistan cannot be transformed along Western lines” - a major factor, along with increased bombing
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Obama’s foreign policy proposals are too vapid; far from incipient or novel, we are subjected to his recycled ideas - which, albeit, were fresh when first espoused in the face of Bush dogmatism. ++ “These ideas have lost their oomph among discerning voters.” ++ Catching Bin Laden, sending more troops to Afghanistan, and unconditional support for Georgia are all calls from the neocon playbook.
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NATO is facing a wily and pitiless enemy in Afghanistan. ++ Taliban forces have reconstituted themselves into a formidable foe. ++ The transfer of nearly 5,000 troops from Iraq - where the situation is more dire than the Bush administration admits - to Afghanistan is “too few, too late, too slow.” ++ The British were unable to control Afghanistan in the 19th century, the Russians in
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Military victory in Afghanistan is achievable, but are we “willing to pay the high cost?” ++ Chura Valley in Uruzgan province is secure thanks to a Dutch reconstruction team, while in a nearby valley snipers reign. ++ This is a microcosm of Afghanistan. ++ ISAF is facing a new, resilient Taliban, drawn from diverse sources. ++ A military surge is needed to quell restive regions,
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If the US goes ahead with its plan to take the war on terror into Pakistan, Pakistani army will loose its credibility and may end up caught up between American troops and al-Quaeda.++ Weakening Pakistani army would backfire on the campaign against terror and make further attacks inside America much more probable. ++ Only the government in Islamabad has a full understanding of the situation on the
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In July President Bush decided to increase attacks by US forces against the Taliban in tribal areas. ++ This increase is in response to the Taliban’s growing strength in Pakistan, more attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan, and an increase in terrorist threats. ++ The US must find a way to balance its relations with President Zardari of Pakistan, and also continue its attacks against the Taliban
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International organizations are stretched to their limits and need reform. ++ NATO struggles to produce an effective strategy in Afghanistan, UN peacekeepers are dispersed over the globe, and the EU can only offer fledgling military support in any operation. ++ Yet, the EU and UN are in the best position to lead the much-needed reform of international organizations. ++ The UN has a critical
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The war in Afghanistan stands at a critical juncture; the Taliban-led insurgency is gaining in effectiveness and influence. ++ The US troop surge planned to counter this threat is no remedy in itself. ++ NATO should develop a national reconciliation program which would bring ex-Taliban moderates into politics. ++ It is also crucial that the number of Afghan soldiers doubles, their salaries rise,
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NATO’s failure to provide Georgia and Ukraine with a concrete Membership Action Plan was a grave mistake, as demonstrated in part by recent events in Georgia. ++ Both NATO and the EU, the latter meeting today to discuss circumstances in Georgia, must avoid further empty promises, and instead pursue concrete action. ++ The West should not isolate Russia, i.e., exclusion from the G8, but must
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A sharp consensus between Europe and the US emerged at the NATO summit that they can not deal with Russia as usual. ++ Regarding the question what to do instead, one answer could be: concentrate on Russian oligarchs. ++ They have close ties with Putin, but also operate globally and depend on Western capital markets, Western consumers and foreign bank accounts. ++ Beside measures such as denying
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Instead of demonstrating the noble character of NATO, the so called “good war” in Afghanistan is running out of control. ++ The death toll is rising inexorably, the security situation for aid agencies and women deteriorates and the local population is turning more and more against the Alliance. ++ The only way to resolve the conflict is to withdraw the foreign troops and start negotiating a
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NATO foreign ministers are meeting tomorrow in Brussels to decide on further actions regarding the crisis in Georgia. ++ To prevent further instability, they should reassure those members who fear Russia that atlantic mutual-defence commitments are real and make new defense arrangements that would deter Russia. ++ They must also speed up the enlargement process and bring in Ukraine and the
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The EU’s attempt to develop a European Security and Defense Policy doesn’t mean it will compete with NATO. ++ Instead, NATO and EU complement each other. ++ Some countries in Africa or the Middle East would rather ask the EU for assistance. ++ On the other hand, NATO has the better capacities to manage certain long-term crises, e.g., when provoked by terrorism. ++ Military resources are only one
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This week’s events in Georgia proved the failure of the Western policy of belligerence towards the Kremlin. ++ It failed to take into account the complexity of the ethnic, religious, and nationalist structures in Georgia and even encouraged Saakashvili to challenge Putin. ++ As a result, the plans to enlarge NATO experienced a backlash, Russian neo-imperialism is strengthened and Georgia has
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Western support of Kosovo’s declaration of independence and NATO’s assurance of Georgia and Ukraine’s eventual Atlantic Alliance membership erode Russian influence on former states of the USSR. ++ Georgia pays a high price for adopting a pro-Western foreign policy and choosing new allies. ++ This intervention is a clear message to the West to stay out of what Kremlin sees as its
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Admitting Georgia and Ukraine to NATO could spoil the cooperation between Russia and the West. ++ If NATO decides to take in the two former Soviet republics, Russia might reciprocate by freezing its relations with the alliance which would be a lose-lose situation for all the parties involved. ++ We must not let this issue cool the relations between NATO and Moscow. ++ NATO, Russia and the OSCE
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The recent escalation of violence in Afghanistan and the calls to divert the US troops from Iraq make the question of ending these long and costly wars even more urgent. ++ There is only one organisation that can provide the leadership necessary to defeat the insurgencies and bring peace and stability to both countries: the UN. ++ US and its allies can never achieve these goals alone. ++ Only the
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Hopes for friendly relations with Russia, running high in the 1990s, were ruined by the Bush administration. ++ NATO membership offer to Georgia and Ukraine and plans to install elements of missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic have fuelled Russian paranoia about strategic encirclement. ++ We need to understand that Russian foreign policy is shaped by their hunger for respect
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Rather than focusing on force levels, debates about burden-sharing within NATO should look at “defense transformation, operations, and the wider context of the international community’s efforts.” ++ While burden-sharing faces many challenges, more equality is possible through common funding, “transformation efforts to increase the pool of usable and deployable forces,” and increased multinational
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Despite the presence of over 50,000 NATO troops and some 140,000 Afghan troops and police, the Taliban and al-Qaeda have gotten stronger over the past two years. ++ The Pentagon invested about US$16.5 billion in Afghanistan, but it still lacks a “sustainable strategy” for the development of an Afghan Army and the country’s police force. ++ Only two of 105 Army units, and not a
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France issued a White Paper on military reforms to meet the new challenges of transnational terrorism and nuclear proliferation. ++ Alongside the modernization and rationalization of its armed forces, France seeks to return to the NATO command structure and revive the idea of a common European defense policy. ++ The US no longer rejects the plan and has thus cleared the way for the formation of
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While the US and Germany would welcome full French participation in NATO, Sarkozy faces stiff resistance to the notion domestically. ++ The fact that French military representation in NATO “far exceeds” analogous French efforts in ESDP should be addressed. ++ The US should emphasize its role as partner rather than leader with regards to NATO, and “positional bargaining” needs to be avoided by all
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