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Tobias Wolny: Dealing with Russia should not be left to cold warriors and Russian well-wishers. Both Old and New Europe will benefit from replacing threatening language with confidence building measures in their approach to diplomatic relations with Russia.
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Thomas Speckmann: Nicolas Sarkozy governs according to his own agenda, to the disadvantage of Europe. His political style is similar to the unilateral approach of President Bush, condemned by so many Europeans. France cannot continue to give its longstanding ally, Germany, the cold shoulder. Sarkozy must cease his go-it-alone policies and become “Sarkozy l’Européen.”
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Interviews with YATA Delegates: Youth Atlantic Treaty Association delegates interviewed at their General Assembly held in Berlin in November 2008. The topics range from Russian relations to what Obama will ask Europe to do.
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Jeffrey Mankoff: Washington and London have proposed dropping the NATO MAPs for Georgia and Ukraine, favoring an open-ended development plan for both countries. Germany and France protest such unorthodoxy, but this more flexible approach might allow NATO to balance its Russian interests with eventual expansion.
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Matthew Yglesias: US relationships with EU countries have been marred not only by our disastrous military engagements but also by a lack of actual diplomacy from the Bush administration. A return to the hallmarks of a liberal society coupled with the simple measure of common courtesy would go a long way.
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Interview with Jackson Janes: The executive director of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies tells Atlantic-community.org that Russia, energy security, climate change, Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the financial crisis are all pressing issues to be addressed jointly by Germany and the United States under an Obama administration.
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Sonja Davidovic: Unable to satisfy the energy demand of its heavy industry, which is further augmented by the rising consumption of the emerging middle class, China had to turn to international markets in search for oil and gas assets.
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Wolfgang Nowak: America is no longer up to shouldering the world’s crises. But who is going to take its place? And how do the new global powers imagine the future world order? Foresight, a project of the Alfred Herrhausen Society, asks thinkers and policy makers from the emerging and existing powers for their thoughts and proposals.
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Abbas Daiyar: The Afghan Foreign Minister’s statement opposing talks with insurgents emphasizes existing divisions within government circles in Afghanistan and abroad. The US and NATO must win the war in Afghanistan. Involving regional countries like Russia, China and India may prevent history from repeating itself.
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Kamil Zwolski: While security problems around the world cry for the broadest coalition possible, NATO and Russia keep falling back into a Cold War state of mind. Moscow proposes a new European security deal as a long-term solution and has criticized the present system as outdated and US-dominated. A new plan is needed to address modern security threats, including climate change.
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Marek Swierczynski: Russia’s naval power prevents NATO from effectively defending Baltic States. If the Alliance is serious about its commitments, it must strengthen its marine capabilities to match those of the Russian Baltic Fleet.
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Anna Nadgrodkiewicz: Russia’s authoritarian tendencies will continue to make it a threat to international security. Allowing Russia to define and act within a self-proclaimed sphere of interest will not make anyone safer.
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Mark Brzezinski: It is unlikely that there is a Kremlin “master plan” guiding Russia’s actions toward her neighbors - her actions are driven variably by ambition and nostalgia, confusion or misinterpretation, irritation or resentment. The West’s goal should be to make Russia understand that working together with the US and EU will make it more prosperous, secure and free.
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Francisco J. Ruiz: It is time to examine relations between Russia, the US, and the EU. With emerging global threats, there are areas in which these three can cooperate in defense and security. All three actors must change their policies enabling more collaboration on these issues.
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Memo 8: Atlantic Community members conclude that the EU, acting in coordination with the UN, is in the best position to negotiate a peaceful solution. The US, Russia, Georgia, NATO, and others must consider their future strategies carefully.
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Askarbek Erkinovich Mambetaliev: Many commentators are looking to Kyrgyzstan to express its “creed” about the Russia-Georgia conflict, considering Kyrgyzstan a key country in Central Asia. It seems no one wants to cross the “older brother” Russia. Therefore, President Kurmanbek Bakiev must act wisely in this situation.
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Hall Gardner: Moscow’s decision to recognize South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence has begun to backfire: Russia has been widely criticized for its actions and the events in Georgia could provoke nationalist claims for independence within Russia itself. Redefining the concept of “independence” might be a way out of the crisis.
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Colette Grace Mazzucelli: The US, acting in coordination with the EU, should address the crisis in Georgia with a strong humanitarian effort and a firm, yet non-isolating, stance toward Russia. As foreign policy concerns are compounded by domestic challenges, the next US administration must prudently tackle economic problems and re-define America’s role in world affairs.
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Christoph Bertram: No one should have been surprised at the way in which Russia has treated tiny and weak Georgia. What is surprising, however, is the eagerness with which many western governments continue to pretend that they can wield effective influence on Russia’s behavior in the Caucasus.
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Leonie Holthaus: The EU should serve as a mediator in the Russian-Georgian dispute. This role requires that the EU does not take sides with one conflicting party but rather balance its criticism. Even if a position like this is perceived as “hesitant” in the US press, it may contribute to resolving the conflict by diplomatic means.
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David Francis: The EU must take a strong yet cooperative stance toward Russia. The next US administration must regain its moral standing in international politics. Ultimately, Moscow must understand that its recent actions in Georgia are unacceptable.
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Leonie Holthaus: There is still a chance that diplomacy can contribute to resolving the Caucasus conflict. Given resurgent cold war vocabulary and the upcoming presidential elections in the US, it is up to the EU to function as a mediator between the conflicting parties.
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Andreas Umland: A justification for Russia’s recent invasion of Georgia was that it had to protect its citizens in South Ossetia. There is, however, a subtle difference between a state’s protection of its citizens living abroad, and its defense of citizens creating their own state within another country
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Ulf Gartzke: Mikhail Saakashvili’s reckless military gamble has unfortunately paid off and put him on a fast track to NATO membership. This stunning turnaround demonstrates the problems with the behavior of the Georgian leadership as well as with the West’s response to their actions.
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Matthew Derek Crosston: The West needs some serious balance in the way it analyzes and discusses the Georgian conflict. Academics, diplomats, and journalists have come forward with a united response to Ossetia: Russia is showing ‘imperialist ambitions’ and ‘a disproportionate reaction.’ This is ridiculous.
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Volodymyr Horbach: Consequences of the recent conflict in Georgia will be as serious and global as those after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Ukraine’s position in this conflict is especially uncomfortable as it needs to preserve good neighborly relations with both Georgia and Russia. Kiev should not, therefore, take sides but take part in the peacekeeping mission.
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Marek Swierczynski: Even though technically Russia won the war, the victory will paradoxically weaken Russia’s position towards its western partners, especially the US. Military action against Georgia – however limited in scale – is a symbolic resurrection of Russia’s imperial ambitions and will thus strengthen transatlantic partnership.
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Wess Mitchell: The United States should announce its intention to transfer the entire Europe-based American military establishment to new locations in Central Europe, because many of the EU’s largest states are more interested in avoiding a rupture with Moscow than in protecting the vital interests of the Union’s eastern members.
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Richard Holbrooke and Ronald D. Asmus: Moscow’s behavior in Georgia poses a direct challenge to European and international order. Georgia deserves our solidarity and support. Only strong transatlantic cooperation can put an end to this conflict and begin to repair the immense damage done.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The Caucasus conflict challenges the Atlantic community, because there is no consensus about resolving it. With regard to Russia, the European countries will have to decide if they want to follow their path of constructive engagement, or keep good ties with the US.
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Stefan Wolff: South Ossetia might well become Georgia’s Chechnya. The current escalation of military hostilities has put the likelihood of a sustainable settlement off even further. The European Union is the best-placed conflict manager in the South Caucasus.
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From the Editorial Team: Georgia and Russia are on the brink of a full-fledged war. How should the European Union, NATO and individual Western governments respond to the current crisis?
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Grigol Ubiria: NATO’s eastern enlargement is too often solely considered from the perspective of Russia’s right to defend its interests on its borders. Little or no attention has been paid to factors forcing former Soviet republics, particularly Georgia and Ukraine, to rush to join the alliance.
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Thomas Speckmann: Despite plans for a common foreign and security policy, bilateral agreements still largely prevail in Europe when it comes to energy policy. More than ever before, Europe needs a common energy foreign policy. Without this kind of special-interest politics, Europe will remain a tiger without teeth.
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Anna Wojnilko: Changing economic and political realities are forcing the G8 to rethink its goals, mandate, and membership. The debate on the shape of a potential G8 reform divides the political world. Should the G8 be enlarged to include new major international players or contracted to ensure effectiveness? We invite you to vote.
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Memo 7: The members of the Atlantic Community believe that Ukraine belongs to Europe. Ukraine needs to be integrated into Western alliances without undermining Western-Russian relations.
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David Francis: Germany is not only comfortable with Russia as an energy partner, it is comfortable with Russia as a strategic partner. This is at odds with the Bush administration, which views Russia with suspicion. Germany’s position has exposed an ideologically divide in Europe.
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Joerg Beige & Arianna de Mario: There are still cases of politically motivated trials that lack basic lawful principles in Russia. We should not be afraid to appear ‘russophobic’ and remind the Russian authorities that they are obliged to comply with international law standards.
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Fabian Martin Lieschke: NATO’s nuclear posture is dated and needs to be reconsidered during next year’s review. If NATO withdraws sub-strategic nuclear weapons from Europe it can pursue a leverage strategy to persuade Russia to also eliminate its tactical nuclear weapons.
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Hall Gardner: NATO’s Bucharest Summit in April 2008 did not fully address the question of how to create a viable system of security for the volatile region of eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the Caucasus. As eastern Europe, the Balkans and the Caucasus are all riddled with secessionist and irredentist movements since Soviet collapse, it will require concerted US, EU, and Russian attention if a major crisis is to be averted.
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Heinrich Bonnenberg: To Russia, its current western border is a border that stands for loss and dishonor. This border is an open, bleeding wound on the Russian body. The security pact that the Russian president recently presented in Berlin could be helpful in overcoming historical grievances and bringing Western Europe and Russia closer together.
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Ryan R. Miller: The belief Russia will help the West ease tensions with Iran is wishful thinking. A compliant Iran would be Gazprom’s biggest competitor. Washington should offer the Mullahs EU energy markets in exchange for concessions on the nuclear issue and thus reduce European dependence on Russian energy.
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Hall Gardner: A move towards Ukrainian NATO membership would strain relations with Russia and have serious consequences. In the short-term, Ukraine should remain “neutral”, while the EU introduces new, and expands existing confidence building economic and political areas of cooperation with Kiev and Moscow. In the long-term, Europe should seek to develop a confederal relationship with both Ukraine and Russia.
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Jens F. Laurson and George A. Pieler: NATO is trying to expand its military wing to more countries, which used to be “the enemy,” in its effort to secure its future. However, Europe’s reliance on imported oil should be considered before alienating exporters like Russia in the attempt of reinventing NATO’s aging alliance.
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Michael T. Klare: When the Cold War ended, it was generally assumed that the US would henceforth enjoy unchallenged preponderance. But today, military superiority no longer constitutes the decisive determinant of global paramountcy: energy has acquired unexpectedly vast significance.
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Memo 6: Members of the Atlantic Community are convinced that NATO needs to redefine its future role and relationship with Russia. Fundamental change, however, is unlikely to occur in the near future and the NATO-Russian relationship may worsen.
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Andreas Umland: US “anti-Russian” rhetoric is not that particular. One can hear similar voices in both Western and Eastern Europe. In the unlikely case that Russia becomes a truly democratic country, much of what Andrei Tsygankov laments in his recent article in “The Moscow Times” would simply disappear.
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Richard G. Lugar: We must forge a more productive relationship with Russia. The absence of a collective energy security strategy and the lack of supply diversification will lead to greater fragmentation among European nations and across the Atlantic.
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Andrei Tsygankov: The US presidential candidates are increasingly playing the Russophobia card in their campaigns. In addressing Russia, Senators John McCain and Hillary Clinton have resorted to insulting President Vladimir Putin as a KGB spy who has no soul. Russophobia is truly back into fashion, as Senator Joseph Biden admitted last week.
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Andreas Umland: The rise of Dmitry Medvedev will mobilize the large anti-Western constituency in various sectors of the Russian elite. We may soon observe the emergence of another, different “tower” in the Russian state apparatus around which Moscow’s various nationalist politicians and publicists will unite.
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Andreas Umland: Sooner or later it is to be expected that Medvedev’s deeper political beliefs – his apparently liberal and democratic views – will come to the fore.
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Marek Swierczynski: Greece and Russia signed an agreement to build the southern branch of the South Stream natural gas pipeline. President Putin’s last victory hardens Gazprom’s grip on Europe and makes any energy diversification projects more difficult. Unless the EU looks at the map and acts.
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Andreas Umland: A conspirological form of anti-Americanism has become Russia’s new foreign policy doctrine. Paradoxically, the Russian elite, at the same time, wants to build closer relations with the US’s major partner in continental Europe - Germany.
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David Francis: Why is everyone outside of Germany worried about Nord Stream, while people in Germany seem okay with it? By looking at the United States, it’s apparent that it’s easier to ignore reliance on imported energy than it is to confront the problem.
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Daniel Korski & Richard Gowan: Away from the limelight and with other world events getting the media’s attention, the situation in Kosovo has been getting worse and worse. And it all started so well with the EU managing to get a consensus for its ESDP mission and two-thirds of EU states backing the province’s independence.
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Marek Swierczynski: Brazil and Russia want to build fighter jets and rockets under the new agreement signed last week. The potential “superpower of the South” may be on its way out of the western camp and can speed up the creation of the world’s new order. Bad news.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: Mistakes have been made on both the Russian and the Western sides. Russia should now be approached as an equal rather than looked down upon or scolded for non-democratic ways.
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Andreas Umland: Don’t overestimate Berlin’s statements concerning Russian interests in the former USSR
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Andreas Goldthau: The extent to which Russia’s resources are sustaining the country’s growth and influencing its foreign policy tends to be overstated. Having to adapt to domestic and geopolitical circumstances, and the rules of the global market considerably restricts the Kremlin’s room for maneuver.
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Stanley R. Sloan: Besides agreeing on devoting more military and non-military resources to the mission in Afghanistan, NATO leaders at the Bucharest Summit should start drafting a new strategic concept and a contemporary Atlantic Charter for the new American administration to tackle in 2009.
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Sascha Müller-Kraenner: The EU and the US have the responsibility as well as the financial and technological means to address the climate challenge. Yet their approach needs to be internationally orientated so that it also offers a platform to the new assertive voices of China, India, Russia and others.
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Maximilian Müngersdorff: Resource-based growth poses a risk to the broader economy. With oil prices hitting record highs, Russia, the world’s largest fossil-fuel exporter, has seen rapid growth. The question is, whether this growth is used to transform Russia into a diversified and sustainable economy.
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Ryan R. Miller: Possible Polish-Iranian energy cooperation puts U.S. policy makers between a rock and a hard place, as America finds itself committed both to isolating the Islamic Republic and supporting Polish efforts to outflank Russia’s Gazprom.
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Benjamin Lucas Schoo: Vote now on what prominent security related issue the governments on both sides of the Atlantic should focus their attention on! We have identified 4 major tasks for 2008 and ask you to select which of these should be at the top of the transatlantic agenda. You can vote now on the right side.
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Wess Mitchell: I outline recent developments between the United States and Poland regarding the US missile defense program. Relations between Poland and Russia are likely to deteriorate and Tusk may have compromised himself by acting so decisively this early in his term.
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Memo 4: Members of the Atlantic Community are mostly optimistic about the future of Kosovo and conflict resolution in the Western Balkans. The EU has a key role in this region and policy is in the right track, but, of course, big challenges still lie ahead.
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Dr. Dimitrios Argirakos: Angela Merkel subordinates German international relations to US geopolitical objectives, something that Bismarck and Adenauer would not understand.
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Alexander Bernhard Bitter: Missile defense for Europe is coterminous with NATO’s mission. The European policy of waiting for a new US administration is flawed, as the financial burden of the endeavor could shift heavily toward Europe.
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Alexandros Petersen: I conclude that Putin’s United Russia administration has framed Sunday’s polls as a referendum on his popularity, ensuring extra support for the party. For all of the president’s finagling, however, the only certainty is that his means of retaining power in Russia next year will confound the pundits’ predictions.
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Andreas Beckmann: The general public does not understand the advantages of a US ground-based missile defense system in Europe. Western politicians should be wary of making confusing public statements that could facilitate Russian and Iranian efforts to divide the Alliance.
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Hans-Ulrich Klose: We need a new philosophy of deterrence against Iran. A tough containment policy, including Russia, and strong defense of Israel could bring about a changed security architecture in the Middle East that might finally include Tehran.
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Nikolas Kirrill Gvosdev: The US course of action on statehood for Kosovo will be a major test for the newly fortified transatlantic relationship.
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Alexandros Petersen: Russia’s recent Cold War-esque behavior is a wake-up call for the transatlantic alliance to overcome internal divisions and strengthen energy routes from the Caspian and Central Asia.
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James Andrew Lewis: I use the assault on Estonian computers to explain the difference between real terror and cyber mischief. Governments must take practical steps to minimize disruption in case of an attack.
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Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger: of the Atlantic Initiative Advisory Board interviews President George W. Bush just prior to the G8 Summit. The President speaks on US-Russia relations, domestic energy policy, and the criticism he has received from around the world.
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Alexander Rahr: The EU and Russia need more direct and frequent communication to avoid future conflict. Putin’s speech has set off a vicious circle: as Russia increasingly positions itself as an aggressor, the United States and Europe find further reason to ostracize Moscow. The worst the West could do would be to write off Russia in a return to containment policy.
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Günter Nooke: I demand that the EU use stronger language towards Russia as regards the persistent erosion of human rights in the country. The unresolved politically motivated murders, discrimination of minorities and excessive police violence against peaceful protesters in the country cannot go unmentioned at today’s EU-Russia summit.
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Alexander Graf Lambsdorff: I find that Russia must be encouraged to participate in European democracy. The EU and US must realize that interdependence with Russia can offer benefits beyond status quo diplomacy.
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Eckart von Klaeden: Europe will soon be vulnerable to medium-range ballistic missiles. The time to act is now. Europe, Germany and NATO must agree on an anti-missile shield to protect against threats from Iran and others.
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Wess Mitchell: I recommend a security agreement with Prague now to set precedent for missile defense negotiations with other NATO members later, starting with Poland. Bilateral agreements with Eastern European countries would reinforce Washington’s strategic commitment to the region and would not undermine NATO in the least.
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Global Must Read Articles
Barack Obama, financial crisis, resurgent Russia, G20, Western decline, climate change - in the season of global predictions, current discourse is driven by these and other such catchwords. ++ Yet, predictions from December 2007 were of little value: none predicted the financial collapse, none an Obama victory, nor any vastly fluctuating oil prices or governments’ failure to keep pace with global
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NATO has become “a military alliance without any political clout” and is in the midst of an identity crisis. ++ The campaign in Afghanistan is suffering because of NATO’s lack of a political voice and a lack of cohesion between Brits and Americans ++ Its vacillation over granting MAPs to Georgia and Ukraine for fear of upsetting Russia is further evidence of its
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A battle over ex-Soviet republics is taking place between Brussels and Moscow. ++ This quarrel is the subtext to the laborious negotiations over Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO and the EU. ++ The EU has shown a clear desire for greater “association” with its neighbors but refuses to start real talks for fear of angering Russia. ++ A European presence in the region is necessary to
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In the 1990’s Asia was considered the pioneer in democratic renewal. Out of Asia spread a democratic wave from southern Europe through Latin America and into Africa. In recent times, however, democratization in Asia has experienced significant set-backs. Quasi-authoritarian regimes in Sri Lanka, Cambodia, and the Philippines set the military against political opposition and profit from declared
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The US sphere of influence can’t extend from Iraq to Georgia. ++ “Historically, peace is maintained when smaller states show restraint in the face of large neighbors.” ++ “Finlandization,” or bowing towards Moscow, used to be an insult during the Cold War. ++ However, Finland remained independent. ++ Saakashvili should take tips from that. ++ As “the old monster” Stalin said apologetically
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NATO ministers meet this week to discuss a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine. ++ “Ukraine’s desire to join NATO is an aspiration to become part of the most effective system of collective security and to share joint responsibility for common space.” ++ Despite protest from Russia, Ukraine must be accepted as a vital ally - peacekeeping missions in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo and
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In the past, the European right reliably took a hard-line stance against Russian expansionism, with the left playing the role of apologists. ++ “Today, there has been an odd reversal,” with the likes of Merkel, Berlusconi, and Sarkozy – Europe’s right – acting as stalwarts for Russia (the latter having done a phenomenal job of irking Eastern Europe in the process).
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The election of Obama could have marked the beginning of improved Russian-US relations, but the “new cold war” will continue. ++ Anti-American sentiment is the result of Russia’s perceived security threats and is fuelled by official propaganda. ++ The next President should demonstrate America’s willingness to support Eastern Europe’s democracies, but he should also
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Western oriented, business friendly, and governed by smart, young people, Georgia is a country on the rise. ++ NATO should not be her final resting place, though. ++ Georgia doesn’t meet NATO requirements for full control of its territory and a closer look reveals its media is like Russia’s: state run and laden with propaganda. ++ “Georgia’s future is economic
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The Bush administration destroyed American goodwill abroad. ++ Obama is a welcome change, but there are limits to what “soft power” can achieve. ++ White House glamour will be useless if Asia stops buying US treasury bonds. ++ As the IMF slips out of American hands, so does world economic leadership and we return to a multi-polar world. ++ Soft power counts for little without economic backing,
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Great challenges await the 44th US president, especially economic ones. The Brookings Institution lists the ten most important:
Restoring Financial Stability: Strengthening the global financial system is a priority alongside the task of defeating the current financial market crisis. Such a strengthening includes increased national regulation and decreased dependence on foreign credit.
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On Friday the EU and Russia met to discuss the state of economic cooperation. ++ Russian troops still remain in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, hindering Georgians from returning home. ++ Upcoming talks between Russia and Georgia do not seem promising. ++ By removing sanctions from Russia, the EU has put itself into an inferior position. ++ Postponing economic accords might be an effective way of
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The EU and Russia will meet for an annual meeting, focusing on the renewal of their partnership agreement. ++ Since the attacks on Georgia, EU-Russian relations have been shattered. ++ Europeans will not accept a divided Georgia. ++ The EU will have to be open to compromise, considering its dependency on Russian energy, but Russia will also have to make concessions in view of its dependency on
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Last week, Medvedev threatened to station missiles near Poland if the US administration continued its plans to install a missile defense system there and in the Czech Republic. ++ President-elect Obama has to improve US-Russian relations. ++ He should be “ready to cancel deployment of the faulty missile defense system in Central Europe [and] end the US push for imminent NATO expansion into
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Russia’s attacks on Georgia have been decried by the US as a violation against international law but recent US attacks on Syria are no less destabilizing to the area. ++ Syria has not only initiated peace talks with Israel and reestablished diplomatic ties with Lebanon, it is also strengthening relations with the EU. ++ US attempts to isolate Syria are failing. ++ The bombings can be viewed
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President Medvedev’s speech harshly attacked the United States and threatened to deploy new missile systems. ++ This threat is a bluff to trick the US or NATO allies into abandoning a plan for a simple missile system in Poland and the Czech Republic. ++ Russians know the system is aimed at Iran and couldn’t stop Russian ICBMs. ++ Obama is too smart to fall for such obvious attempts of
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America could prevent proliferation ambitions around the world by upgrading its own nuclear weapons arsenal. ++ Congressional funding would allow for building safer and more reliable arms. ++ The proposed “Reliable Replacement Warhead Program,” intends for the US and Russia to reduce their nuclear weapons without having to test replacement warheads. ++ The next president should
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Commodity prices are falling, Western credit has dried up, and Russia has failed to diversify its economy. ++ Russia’s dazzlingly successful economy turned out to be just make-believe. ++ Despite the professionalism of the finance ministry’s rescue plan, Putin does not see the need to make that consistent with his foreign policy. ++ He can no longer assume Russia’s energy power
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There is a lesson to be learned from the West’s decision to integrate China into its fold following Tiananmen Square. ++ While China is still ruled by the same horrific party responsible for the Cultural Revolution, it is “a far cry from the Mao Zedong era.” ++ By applying the same “global liberalizing influences” to Russia, all will benefit from closer “peace
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The Georgia conflict is forcing Russia’s neighbors to rethink their relationships with Russia as well as with the West. Through military action, Russia has demonstrated how far it is willing to go to protect its national interests. Western rhetorical reactions to the crisis have dashed hopes that a partnership between post-Soviet states and the US, NATO or the EU could help retain their
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“Old” and “new” Europe parallel the blue and red state split in the US. ++ In old (western) Europe Obama is viewed as a “ray of hope;” new (central and eastern) Europe raises the question, “Who is Obama?” ++ This can be attributed to a difference in threat perceptions. ++ Nowhere is this exemplified more than in Germany. ++ There, a proto-Kantian
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The financial crash will have serious geopolitical consequences. ++ Russia will reassert itself as a global player. ++ As its stock market does not play as crucial a role as in Western markets, and as Russia has a lot of money due to the boom in oil and natural gas markets, it will be the greatest winner in the aftermath of the crisis. ++ The US will also, in the long run, gain as the crisis will
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Russia’s invasion of Georgia is not an aberration - it demonstrates a pattern of aggression, one that now threatens Ukraine as Moscow embraces PM Yulia Tymoshenko. ++ Russia’s relations with Tehran, Syria, OPEC and most recently Venezuela all threaten US interests. ++ Western weakness, especially in Europe, is not an option. ++ Georgia and Ukraine must be brought into NATO; military cooperation
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Viktor Yuschenko, president of Ukraine, has called for another parliamentary election in hopes of settling internal divisions symbolized largely by Ukraine’s leading three politicians - Yuschenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovich. ++ This must be a Ukrainian election for Ukrainians. ++ Both Russia and the US (NATO) must keep their hands off. ++ Instead the EU should make Ukraine’s membership in the
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Moscow’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia does not correlate with universal approval, and an international dialogue concerning the status of Georgia is set to begin. ++ Europe has proven itself too dissolute to confront Russia openly: Sarkozy has advocated global mediation, emphasizing Georgia’s weakness, and Merkel speaks of “Georgia’s core territory,” nearly cow-towing to the Russian
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Recent developments have greatly reduced the chances of a war against Iran. ++ Washington had planned to conduct air strikes against Iran from Georgian soil. ++ Russian intervention makes it impossible, which has “strengthened Iran’s hand.” ++ Russia undermined US efforts to impose new sanctions against Tehran during the Security Council’s meeting last month. ++ The fact
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Russia’s military is almost an obsolete force due to poor training and poor quality of armaments. ++ Russia’s defense budget is just 7% of US spending. ++ It is unlikely that Russia will be able to afford the $200 billion needed for the revival of its military due to declining oil prices. ++ Ukraine also lacks appropriate military equipment and training - both countries are among the
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NATO has lost itself in the in Caucasus conflict. ++ Medvedev has repeatedly outlined his plans for a EU security architecture - he views his country’s security interests neglected. ++ The EU has almost disqualified itself from diplomatic talks by blindly solidarizing with Georgia. ++ The acceptance of Georgia’s wish for future membership in NATO might be a slight to Russia ++ If NATO
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Iran is at most four years away from its nuclear goals - diplomacy is needed. ++ Russia’s offer to provide Iran with enriched nuclear material and US proposals for direct talks in return for the abandonment of nuclear intentions have been turned down. ++ The disapproval of further offers might result in the total isolation of Iran. ++ Using military force is only credible if Iran “can
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Russian President Medvedev continues the wave of anti-US invective of his predecessor. ++ After 9/11, the US failed to spread democracy around the world, choosing to “consolidate its global domination” instead. ++ Europe should intensify its relations with Russia to “unite the whole Euro-Atlantic region.” ++ The US suffers from a “very dangerous disease” called
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The US presidential race has been one for the ages. ++ Citizens of the globe have never come so close to seeing an African American become president of the world’s most powerful nation; never again will they see a Vietnam veteran running; never have they seen 19 million votes go to a women; and never have they seen a women so close to becoming vice president. ++ In America, though, “victory
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We are too easily impressed by the Russian bear. ++ “Moscow remains bent on ignoring the devastating truth: The nation is not just sick but dying.” ++ The population is declining, the economy is totally dependent on oil revenues, and the public health crisis “verges on the catastrophic.” ++ AIDS, tuberculosis, alcoholism, heart disease, and smoking are killing Russians at an alarming rate. ++
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The US Senate must pass a waiver buying seats aboard Russian space vehicles for US astronauts.++ The NASA shuttle fleet retires in two years, and its new space vehicle, the Orion, will not be ready until 2015, essentially leaving the space station to the Russians until that time. ++ The only way for American astronauts to continue at the space station is via Russian space vehicles. ++ Despite
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It’s a critical question: Is the financial crisis on Wall Street going to damage the US’s image of good finance and business expertise? ++ Actually, the answer is no. ++ The image of the US from a global perspective is still strong, and the US is for many “a beacon of free enterprise.” ++ There is no other financial leader who could replace the US - Europe is divided, while Russia and China have
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Annette Heuser is executive director of the Bertelsmann Foundation Washington DC, a private, nonpartisan operating foundation, working to promote and strengthen transatlantic cooperation. Before launching the Bertelsman
Foundation in Washington DC, Ms. Heuser served in the corporate sector as Vice President of
International Relations at Bertelsmann AG in Guetersloh, Germany, and as the
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For a long time it has been thought that world markets are decoupling, enabling the emerging economies of the BRIC group to thrive regardless of the economic slowdown in the Western world. ++ The emerging countries were predicted to quickly overtake the veterans of the G7. ++ New data, however, seem to puncture that theory. ++ BRICs do not live in an enclosed world, and the credit crunch has had
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If Russia is to believe that the anti-missile base in Poland will not be used against it, US and its allies have to stop making “cosmetic political gestures” and give concrete guarantees. ++ Statements about Kremlin’s imperialist policies are unfair; Russia has always sided with the weaker and, like always, its moral rightness is undisputed. ++ Moscow doesn’t fear isolation, as
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Russia is convinced that it can deal with the West, but worries about the dangerous Afghanistan. ++ The well-being of the Russian economy and a good relationship with its domestic Muslim population depend on a stable Afghanistan. ++ Therefore, the announcement to conduct military maneuvers with Kazakhstan could be a sign that Russia is deciding to take responsibility there. ++ The US was not able
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Russia’s recent actions make it look like the Cold War is back, but Russia is still a poor, weak country. ++ Russia’s military is no match for NATO and their backup nuclear arsenal is unlikely to play a role in conflicts. ++ Moscow can claim few worthwhile allies and efforts to woo China have largely failed. ++ Capitalism requires Russia to behave and if energy prices continue to slide, Medvedev
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A poll revealed that Americans and Europeans were troubled over the growing power of Russia even before the attack on Georgia. ++ Respondents in Europe and the US were united in concern about the Kremlin providing weapons to the Middle East, Russia’s energy monopoly, and its behavior toward its neighbors. ++ What they don’t agree upon is how to respond to the Kremlin’s new assertiveness;
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Monday, Russia agreed to joint naval exercises with Venezuela and is making its first major maneuvers off US waters since the Cold War. ++ It is not widely recognized, but the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the Panama Canal are vital gates for US energy imports, making them vulnerable choke points for enemies of the US, i.e., a Russian-Venezuelan alliance. ++ Chavez has been buying weapons from
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It is no accident that Dick Cheney visited Azerbaijan last week. ++ Azerbaijan is a core east-west transit country for oil and natural gas. ++ Their pipelines provide energy to Europe, support former Soviet republics, and help keep oil money away from Iran and Russia. ++ Yet, Azerbaijan still wants to maintain good ties with Russia and is not seeking NATO membership. ++ The war in Georgia has
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While some have argued that the recent summit in Brussels proved ineffective, the Georgia crisis has actually drawn the member states closer together. ++ As Europe proceeds, there are important objectives to keep in mind. ++ Europe must focus on energy security and limit its dependence on Russian supplies. ++ Accession must be a viable option for eastern countries, especially Ukraine. ++ And
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Ukraine is approaching its third election in two years, a sign of its government’s volatility. ++ In response, the EU should put Ukraine on a clear road to accession, an albeit controversial move that is nevertheless in its vital interest. ++ Furthermore, the EU must invest economically in Ukraine, thereby bringing stability and growth to a region that could otherwise fall prey to the divisive
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Despite the call for sanctions on Russia from Poland and the three Baltic states, the only agreement the EU made was to postpone talks about a partnership agreement with Moscow. ++ Medvedev praised the EU’s decision to reject sanctioning Russia, but was disappointed about the EU’s inability to understand Russia’s motives in the Caucasus war. ++ The US welcomed the EU’s decision to boost efforts
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Whereas the two last US administrations had a chance to assume American hegemony in economics and security, the chief task of the next one will be to adjust to the global shift in power and gracefully manage diminishing American influence. ++ The US will not be able to show as much arrogance in international relations now that its influence is waning and new powers are emerging. ++ The next
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“The attack on Georgia will go down not as the dawn of a new era of Russian power but as a major strategic blunder.” ++ Russia thought it had little to lose, but it has driven its neighbors, like Poland and Ukraine, into the arms of the West. ++ The US and the EU are now in the best strategic position in 20 years and even China has refused support. ++ Lowering oil prices and working
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Conflict in Georgia proved that Russia isn’t and doesn’t want to be a part of Europe. ++ Moscow rejects European commitment to nonviolent methods of conflict resolution and shows little appreciation for equality of nations, which is a fundamental principle on the Old Continent. ++ Kremlin trusts in the “hierarchy of raw power.” ++ This mindset is anachronistic for the 21st century and
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EU efforts to reach a friendly and mutually beneficial relationship with Russia are thwarted by the new eastern and central European EU members. ++ These countries, in contrast to old members, failed to leave past enmities at the door when joining the Union and can only view Russia through the prism of their bitter historic experience.++ Jacque Chirac’s warnings about EU enlargement now appear
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NATO’s failure to provide Georgia and Ukraine with a concrete Membership Action Plan was a grave mistake, as demonstrated in part by recent events in Georgia. ++ Both NATO and the EU, the latter meeting today to discuss circumstances in Georgia, must avoid further empty promises, and instead pursue concrete action. ++ The West should not isolate Russia, i.e., exclusion from the G8, but must
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President Medvedev was unable to achieve the explicit support of the Chinese president for Russia’s intervention in the Caucasus at the latest Central Asian summit. ++ China has not only avoided any anti-western statements so far, it is also concerned about an upcoming trend of separation which may spill over to its own ethnically diverse provinces. ++ Beijing has kept a low-profile in the
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Will Turkey side with the US, its NATO ally, and give it access to the Black Sea to assist Georgia, or will it choose Russia? ++ Russia is warning Turkey that it will hold it responsible if US ships do not leave. ++ Turkey depends on Russian gas and, more importantly, the two countries share many negative opinions about the US. ++ Azerbaijan and Armenia are worried about a Turkish-Russian
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International investors were already troubled by Russia’s economic problems, but Russia’s recent actions toward Georgia have created diplomatic tensions, which may scare off investors. ++ The outcome of the US election could be a major factor in how Western relations with Russia develop. ++ Weak legal protections for foreign investors who irk Russian authorities will also deter investments. ++
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It was Saakashvili’s behavior that forced Russia to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. ++ Relations of different nations living in one state have to be handled with great sensitivity. ++ Russia respects its minorities and fosters harmonious coexistence between them; the president of Georgia proved himself unable to do the same and stripped his country’s regions
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The agenda for cooperation with Russia looks doubtful but safe havens for cooperation still exist. ++ For instance, the entire civil and military nuclear agenda opens room for diplomacy. ++ However, no single European institution is perfectly suited to working on security arrangements. ++ At this highly charged moment, the best choice may be to turn to the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in
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Russia’s invasion is not only a threat to Georgia, it also questions the political order and values of Europe. ++ With American help, the EU has become “one of the greatest strategic achievements of the 20th century.” ++ But now the Russian aggression is drawing a dividing line through Europe and separates the truly independent nations from those which are stuck on Russia’s autocratic
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The US should use alternative means to accelerate Russia’s withdrawal from Georgia and to stabilize the country. ++ In addition to humanitarian aid, it could initiate a large reconstruction operation to ensure the vitality of Georgia’s economy during the Russian occupation. ++ Also, the corrupt oligarchs around Putin could be undoubtedly pressured if US agencies pursue corrupt practices of
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There is little the United States can do to help Georgia. ++ Russia, with its nuclear weapons, oil, dollar reserves and seat on the UN Security Council, has too much leverage on US foreign policy, so banishing Russia from the G8 would be unwise. ++ The US should lessen their dependence on Russian energy and aim to get Russia to cooperate, not provoke obstinacy. ++ Russian troops should be
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Poles, Czechs and Hungarians should be under no illusion that they can count on the US in case of a crisis. ++ In the past the US used to leave its Eastern European allies in the lurch and its recent reaction to Georgia’s plight was no different. ++ The only thing that the frontline states can do is to count on themselves. ++ They should make a larger commitment to their own defense,
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A sharp consensus between Europe and the US emerged at the NATO summit that they can not deal with Russia as usual. ++ Regarding the question what to do instead, one answer could be: concentrate on Russian oligarchs. ++ They have close ties with Putin, but also operate globally and depend on Western capital markets, Western consumers and foreign bank accounts. ++ Beside measures such as denying
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Even though both Washington and Warsaw deny it, it was the Russian attack on Georgia that broke the stalemate in negotiations and pushed Polish government towards signing the missile defence treaty on Wednesday. ++ A garrison of American soldiers who will protect the US Patriot air defense battery on the Polish territory is supposed to act as a tripwire - any Russian attack on the MD system
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The Atlantic view that it’s necessary to protect the underdog from its powerful neighbour is isolated; most of the world is bemused at Western double standards and sees Russia as bullied by the West. ++ Events in Georgia show that the West lacks strategic thinking. ++ Instead of dealing with Russia, Western thinkers should decide what the greatest long-term challenge is – China or the
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